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US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
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Referendums

2026 Midterm Election Predictions

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
Key races

Texas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Talarico64%
Paxton36%
Projected marginD +1.8

Maine Senate winner?

Nov 3
Jackson63%
Collins37%
Projected marginD +1.8

Michigan Senate winner?

Nov 3
El-Sayed68%
Rogers32%
Projected marginD +2.3

Ohio Senate winner?

Nov 3
Brown64%
Husted36%
Projected marginD +2.7

Iowa Senate winner?

Nov 3
Turek42%
Hinson58%
Projected marginR +1.1

Kansas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Hamilton40%
Marshall60%

Texas Governor winner?

Nov 3
Hinojosa29%
Abbott71%
Projected marginR +4.1

Nebraska Senate winner?

Nov 3
Osborn28%
Ricketts72%
Projected marginR +4.3

Georgia Governor winner?

Nov 3
Bottoms51%
Jackson49%
Projected marginD +0.3

Nevada Governor winner?

Nov 3
Ford58%
Lombardo42%
Projected marginD +0.7

MT-01 House winner?

Nov 3
Forstag34%
Flint66%
Projected marginR +1.9

NY-17 House winner?

Nov 3
Conley58%
Lawler42%
Projected marginD +0.9
SenateHouseGovernorStatesBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast

Democrats have a 91% chance to control the House

14 days to Election
232DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats200
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe Democratic
Total 208
AL-07
D99%
AZ-03
D97%
AZ-04
D96%
AZ-07
D96%
CA-01
D96%
CA-02
D97%
CA-03
D96%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D96%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D95%
CA-09
D97%
CA-10
D98%
CA-12
D100%
CA-13
D95%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D98%
CA-16
D98%
CA-17
D99%
CA-18
D95%
CA-19
D98%
CA-21
D95%
CA-22
D90%
CA-24
D98%
CA-25
D97%
CA-26
D96%
CA-27
D96%
CA-28
D98%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D95%
CA-31
D95%
CA-32
D99%
CA-33
D98%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D95%
CA-36
D97%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D99%
CA-39
D97%
CA-41
D96%
CA-42
D96%
CA-43
D98%
CA-44
D94%
CA-45
D93%
CA-46
D98%
CA-47
D95%
CA-48
D92%
CA-49
D97%
CA-50
D98%
CA-51
D98%
CA-52
D98%
CO-01
D98%
CO-02
D96%
CO-06
D99%
CO-07
D98%
CT-01
D97%
CT-02
D99%
CT-03
D95%
CT-04
D99%
CT-05
D95%
DE-AL
D100%
FL-10
D100%
FL-20
D98%
FL-23
D95%
FL-24
D99%
GA-02
D97%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D98%
GA-06
D98%
GA-13
D97%
HI-01
D96%
HI-02
D97%
IA-01
D90%
IL-01
D98%
IL-02
D95%
IL-03
D97%
IL-04
D97%
IL-05
D96%
IL-06
D95%
IL-07
D96%
IL-08
D97%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D96%
IL-11
D98%
IL-13
D98%
IL-14
D97%
IL-17
D98%
IN-01
D98%
IN-07
D98%
KS-03
D97%
KY-03
D98%
LA-02
D95%
MA-01
D95%
MA-02
D98%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D91%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D97%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D95%
MA-09
D94%
MD-02
D98%
MD-03
D97%
MD-04
D93%
MD-05
D92%
MD-06
D97%
MD-07
D95%
MD-08
D100%
ME-01
D98%
MI-03
D94%
MI-06
D99%
MI-08
D95%
MI-11
D98%
MI-12
D96%
MI-13
D96%
MN-02
D96%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D95%
MN-05
D93%
MO-01
D97%
MO-05
D97%
MS-02
D96%
NC-02
D99%
NC-04
D95%
NC-12
D96%
NE-02
D94%
NH-01
D95%
NH-02
D96%
NJ-01
D97%
NJ-03
D97%
NJ-05
D98%
NJ-06
D98%
NJ-07
D93%
NJ-08
D97%
NJ-09
D97%
NJ-10
D100%
NJ-11
D98%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D95%
NM-02
D91%
NM-03
D96%
NV-01
D97%
NV-03
D95%
NV-04
D97%
NY-03
D91%
NY-04
D94%
NY-05
D97%
NY-06
D94%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D95%
NY-09
D96%
NY-10
D100%
NY-12
D96%
NY-13
D98%
NY-14
D99%
NY-15
D96%
NY-18
D98%
NY-19
D97%
NY-20
D98%
NY-22
D96%
NY-25
D99%
NY-26
D95%
OH-01
D94%
OH-03
D99%
OH-11
D96%
OH-13
D96%
OR-01
D96%
OR-03
D98%
OR-04
D97%
OR-05
D96%
OR-06
D98%
PA-02
D97%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D95%
PA-05
D99%
PA-06
D94%
PA-12
D99%
PA-17
D96%
RI-01
D99%
RI-02
D94%
SC-06
D98%
TX-07
D97%
TX-16
D98%
TX-18
D97%
TX-20
D97%
TX-28
D92%
TX-29
D94%
TX-30
D99%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D99%
UT-01
D98%
VA-03
D99%
VA-04
D98%
VA-07
D97%
VA-08
D97%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D96%
VT-AL
D99%
WA-01
D97%
WA-02
D95%
WA-03
D91%
WA-06
D95%
WA-07
D98%
WA-08
D93%
WA-09
D96%
WA-10
D94%
WI-02
D96%
WI-04
D99%
Likely Democratic
Total 15
AZ-01
D80%
AZ-06
D85%
CA-11
D80%
CO-08
D84%
FL-25
D89%
IA-03
D81%
NC-11
D81%
NY-16
D76%
OH-07
D82%
PA-07
D87%
PA-10
D81%
TX-15
D86%
TX-34
D84%
VA-02
D89%
WI-03
D76%
Lean Democratic
Total 9
FL-14
D69%
IA-02
D61%
MI-07
D64%
MI-10
D69%
NC-01
D70%
OH-09
D72%
PA-08
D73%
TX-35
D63%
VA-01
D60%
Toss-up
Total 3Dem 3Rep 0
FL-22
D57%
MI-04
D52%
NY-17
D59%
Lean Republican
Total 16
AL-02
R72%
CO-03
R70%
FL-07
R73%
FL-09
R72%
FL-27
R68%
KY-06
R68%
ME-02
R63%
MT-01
R65%
NV-02
R73%
NY-21
R73%
OH-15
R73%
PA-01
R62%
SC-01
R69%
TX-23
R73%
VA-05
R71%
WI-01
R62%
Likely Republican
Total 38
AK-AL
R84%
AR-02
R79%
AZ-02
R76%
AZ-05
R90%
AZ-08
R89%
CO-04
R77%
CO-05
R76%
FL-04
R86%
FL-13
R78%
FL-16
R82%
FL-21
R88%
FL-26
R90%
GA-01
R89%
GA-12
R86%
IN-05
R88%
KS-02
R84%
MD-01
R88%
MI-01
R90%
MN-01
R78%
MN-08
R85%
MO-02
R76%
NC-03
R81%
NC-05
R90%
NC-07
R82%
NC-09
R82%
NC-13
R88%
NC-14
R90%
NE-01
R82%
NJ-02
R79%
NY-01
R88%
NY-02
R83%
OH-10
R79%
OK-05
R84%
SC-02
R85%
TN-09
R84%
TX-09
R85%
TX-32
R87%
WA-05
R88%
Safe Republican
Total 146
AL-01
R98%
AL-03
R99%
AL-04
R99%
AL-05
R97%
AL-06
R98%
AR-01
R97%
AR-03
R98%
AR-04
R98%
AZ-09
R97%
CA-05
R94%
CA-20
R98%
CA-23
R98%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R98%
FL-02
R93%
FL-03
R96%
FL-05
R94%
FL-06
R98%
FL-08
R96%
FL-11
R91%
FL-12
R93%
FL-15
R94%
FL-17
R96%
FL-18
R95%
FL-19
R96%
FL-28
R94%
GA-03
R98%
GA-07
R93%
GA-08
R98%
GA-09
R96%
GA-10
R97%
GA-11
R96%
GA-14
R98%
IA-04
R97%
ID-01
R99%
ID-02
R95%
IL-12
R98%
IL-15
R95%
IL-16
R96%
IN-02
R96%
IN-03
R97%
IN-04
R95%
IN-06
R96%
IN-08
R92%
IN-09
R98%
KS-01
R98%
KS-04
R97%
KY-01
R98%
KY-02
R98%
KY-04
R96%
KY-05
R98%
LA-01
R94%
LA-03
R98%
LA-04
R95%
LA-05
R95%
LA-06
R94%
MI-02
R97%
MI-05
R93%
MI-09
R96%
MN-06
R95%
MN-07
R96%
MO-03
R96%
MO-04
R97%
MO-06
R96%
MO-07
R95%
MO-08
R98%
MS-01
R95%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R96%
MT-02
R96%
NC-06
R90%
NC-08
R95%
NC-10
R94%
ND-AL
R97%
NE-03
R96%
NJ-04
R97%
NY-11
R95%
NY-23
R96%
NY-24
R98%
OH-02
R97%
OH-04
R96%
OH-05
R96%
OH-06
R96%
OH-08
R92%
OH-12
R97%
OH-14
R94%
OK-01
R95%
OK-02
R94%
OK-03
R98%
OK-04
R96%
OR-02
R96%
PA-09
R95%
PA-11
R97%
PA-13
R93%
PA-14
R93%
PA-15
R96%
PA-16
R95%
SC-03
R98%
SC-04
R94%
SC-05
R93%
SC-07
R95%
SD-AL
R96%
TN-01
R97%
TN-02
R97%
TN-03
R98%
TN-04
R98%
TN-05
R92%
TN-06
R94%
TN-07
R98%
TN-08
R96%
TX-01
R97%
TX-02
R94%
TX-03
R94%
TX-04
R96%
TX-05
R96%
TX-06
R98%
TX-08
R96%
TX-10
R92%
TX-11
R97%
TX-12
R95%
TX-13
R97%
TX-14
R96%
TX-17
R96%
TX-19
R94%
TX-21
R97%
TX-22
R96%
TX-24
R92%
TX-25
R96%
TX-26
R96%
TX-27
R94%
TX-31
R95%
TX-36
R96%
TX-38
R97%
UT-02
R91%
UT-03
R98%
UT-04
R97%
VA-06
R94%
VA-09
R97%
WA-04
R93%
WI-05
R96%
WI-06
R94%
WI-07
R96%
WI-08
R90%
WV-01
R98%
WV-02
R96%
WY-AL
R94%
More markets
161 events
MarketPays outOdds
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$1,961,732 vol
Yes
1.18x
No
5.56x
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$103,497,016 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.90x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.97x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$599,562 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.09x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
11.7x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$93,322 vol
Yes
3.80x
No
1.29x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$735,522 vol
Yes
1.86x
No
1.97x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,679,141 vol
Yes
3.96x
No
1.28x
US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$21,155 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.23x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
8.56x
US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$15,222 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.65x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.52x
US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$19,560 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.28x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
5.90x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$38,344 vol
Proposition 134
1.90x
Proposition 135
1.93x
US Elections

Iowa State Senate winner?

$10,808 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.09x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
31.2x
US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$156,577 vol
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
1.70x
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
2.14x
US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$21,514 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.19x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.46x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$112,622 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.22x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
4.73x
US Elections

Arizona State House winner?

$7,073 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.29x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.31x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$7,700 vol
Question 3
1.28x
Question 5
1.15x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$47,604 vol
Yes
2.29x
No
1.62x
US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$13,643 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.48x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.80x
Attorney General

Kansas Attorney General winner?

$9,580 vol
Chris Mann
Chris Mann
Chris Mann
1.70x
Kris Kobach
Kris Kobach
Kris Kobach
2.14x
US Elections

Maine State Senate winner?

$20,226 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.06x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
13.4x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

$22,973 vol
No, ≥4%
1.90x
No, ≥7%
2.73x
US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$17,294 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.12x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
8.56x
US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$4,674 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.38x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.52x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$31,069 vol
Proposition 45
1.79x
Proposition 41
1.73x
Combos
House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193
198-202
$4,623,838 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

234-237
230-233
$3,356,708 vol12 markets
House

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
$2,866,597 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

8
7
$244,393 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?

9
8
$66,172 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

11
10
$63,754 vol8 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

12
11
$54,940 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1
2
$43,961 vol4 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in New Jersey?

10
Above 10
$39,760 vol5 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Nevada?

3
4
$37,890 vol4 markets
Projected flip races
UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
98%
Projected marginD +32.8
2%
Projected marginD +32.8
CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
96%
Projected marginD +16.2
4%
Projected marginD +16.2
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
98%
Projected marginD +25.0
2%
Projected marginD +25.0
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
94%
Projected marginD +9.7
6%
Projected marginD +9.7
NJ-07
D
Rebecca BennettBennett
R
Thomas Kean Jr.Kean*
94%
Projected marginD +8.9
6%
Projected marginD +8.9
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
86%
Projected marginD +6.4
14%
Projected marginD +6.4
MN-05
D
Ilhan OmarOmar*
R
John NagelNagel
95%
Projected marginD +54.3
5%
Projected marginD +54.3
MT-01
D
Sam ForstagForstag
R
Aaron FlintFlint
34%
Projected marginR +1.9
66%
Projected marginR +1.9
IA-01
D
Christina BohannanBohannan
R
Mariannette Miller-MeeksMiller-Meeks*
89%
Projected marginD +8.8
11%
Projected marginD +8.8
FL-25
D
Jared MoskowitzMoskowitz
R
Scott SingerSinger
89%
Projected marginD +6.8
11%
Projected marginD +6.8
MN-01
D
Jake JohnsonJohnson
R
Brad FinstadFinstad*
24%
Projected marginR +3.3
76%
Projected marginR +3.3
PA-07
D
Bob BrooksBrooks
R
Ryan MackenzieMackenzie*
86%
Projected marginD +7.0
14%
Projected marginD +7.0
NY-17
D
Cait ConleyConley
R
Mike LawlerLawler*
58%
Projected marginD +0.9
42%
Projected marginD +0.9
AL-02
D
Shomari FiguresFigures*
R
Rhett MarquesMarques
29%
Projected marginD +3.5
71%
Projected marginD +3.5
VA-01
D
Shannon TaylorTaylor
R
Rob WittmanWittman*
60%
Projected marginD +1.4
40%
Projected marginD +1.4
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
28%
Projected marginR +4.6
72%
Projected marginR +4.6
FL-14
D
Kathy CastorCastor*
R
Mike BeltranBeltran
68%
Projected marginD +4.8
32%
Projected marginD +4.8
VA-05
D
Tom PerrielloPerriello
R
John McGuireMcGuire*
30%
70%
NC-11
D
Jamie AgerAger
R
Jennifer BalkcomBalkcom*
81%
Projected marginD +6.0
19%
Projected marginD +6.0
PA-01
D
Bob HarvieHarvie
R
Brian FitzpatrickFitzpatrick*
38%
Projected marginR +3.4
62%
Projected marginR +3.4
VA-02
D
Elaine LuriaLuria
R
Jen KiggansKiggans*
88%
Projected marginD +7.1
12%
Projected marginD +7.1
TX-35
D
Johnny C. GarciaGarcia
R
Carlos De La CruzCruz
64%
Projected marginD +2.7
36%
Projected marginD +2.7
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
92%
Projected marginD +12.7
8%
Projected marginD +12.7
NC-01
D
Don DavisDavis*
R
Laurie BuckhoutBuckhout
71%
Projected marginD +2.3
29%
Projected marginD +2.3
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