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Trending

Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats have an 85% chance to control the House

Early forecasts · 70 days to Election
229DemocratsDem seats
218 to win
218to win
RepublicansRep seats199
212 current Democratic seats219 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 192
AL-07
D95%
AZ-03
D99%
AZ-04
D92%
AZ-07
D95%
CA-01
D96%
CA-02
D97%
CA-03
D94%
CA-04
D100%
CA-06
D96%
CA-07
D100%
CA-08
D90%
CA-09
D92%
CA-10
D96%
CA-11
D100%
CA-12
D100%
CA-14
D100%
CA-15
D95%
CA-16
D94%
CA-17
D98%
CA-18
D97%
CA-19
D99%
CA-21
D91%
CA-24
D97%
CA-25
D91%
CA-26
D96%
CA-27
D93%
CA-28
D96%
CA-29
D100%
CA-30
D95%
CA-31
D96%
CA-32
D97%
CA-33
D93%
CA-34
D100%
CA-35
D97%
CA-36
D93%
CA-37
D100%
CA-38
D94%
CA-39
D92%
CA-41
D93%
CA-42
D98%
CA-43
D99%
CA-44
D97%
CA-45
D94%
CA-47
D94%
CA-49
D97%
CA-50
D95%
CA-51
D97%
CO-01
D97%
CO-02
D99%
CO-06
D96%
CO-07
D97%
CT-01
D94%
CT-02
D96%
CT-03
D96%
CT-04
D99%
DE-AL
D97%
FL-10
D95%
FL-20
D96%
FL-23
D90%
FL-24
D96%
GA-02
D95%
GA-04
D97%
GA-05
D98%
GA-06
D97%
GA-13
D95%
HI-01
D97%
HI-02
D97%
IL-01
D94%
IL-02
D97%
IL-03
D97%
IL-04
D96%
IL-05
D97%
IL-06
D99%
IL-07
D97%
IL-08
D90%
IL-09
D95%
IL-10
D97%
IL-11
D93%
IL-13
D96%
IL-14
D94%
IL-17
D95%
IN-01
D90%
IN-07
D98%
KS-03
D92%
KY-03
D94%
LA-02
D99%
MA-01
D97%
MA-02
D97%
MA-03
D97%
MA-04
D97%
MA-05
D96%
MA-06
D93%
MA-07
D99%
MA-08
D94%
MA-09
D97%
MD-02
D95%
MD-03
D98%
MD-04
D91%
MD-05
D91%
MD-06
D92%
MD-07
D96%
MD-08
D96%
ME-01
D97%
MI-03
D90%
MI-06
D91%
MI-08
D94%
MI-11
D93%
MI-12
D98%
MI-13
D99%
MN-02
D95%
MN-03
D99%
MN-04
D90%
MN-05
D93%
MO-01
D99%
MS-02
D95%
NC-02
D96%
NC-04
D99%
NC-12
D95%
NE-02
D90%
NH-02
D95%
NJ-01
D97%
NJ-03
D95%
NJ-05
D99%
NJ-06
D96%
NJ-08
D96%
NJ-10
D98%
NJ-11
D96%
NJ-12
D96%
NM-01
D95%
NM-02
D92%
NM-03
D90%
NV-01
D90%
NV-03
D90%
NV-04
D90%
NY-05
D92%
NY-06
D98%
NY-07
D98%
NY-08
D94%
NY-09
D92%
NY-10
D98%
NY-12
D99%
NY-13
D98%
NY-14
D99%
NY-15
D96%
NY-16
D91%
NY-19
D90%
NY-20
D95%
NY-22
D94%
NY-25
D96%
NY-26
D97%
OH-03
D98%
OH-11
D94%
OH-13
D95%
OR-01
D90%
OR-03
D97%
OR-04
D97%
OR-06
D97%
PA-02
D99%
PA-03
D99%
PA-04
D94%
PA-05
D96%
PA-06
D99%
PA-12
D96%
PA-17
D91%
RI-01
D99%
RI-02
D95%
SC-06
D92%
TX-07
D95%
TX-16
D97%
TX-18
D98%
TX-20
D96%
TX-29
D95%
TX-30
D97%
TX-33
D99%
TX-37
D97%
UT-01
D91%
VA-03
D95%
VA-04
D97%
VA-07
D95%
VA-08
D98%
VA-10
D96%
VA-11
D98%
VT-AL
D96%
WA-01
D96%
WA-02
D99%
WA-06
D97%
WA-07
D97%
WA-08
D94%
WA-09
D95%
WA-10
D97%
WI-02
D95%
WI-04
D98%

Likely Democratic

Total 26
AZ-01
D78%
AZ-06
D85%
CA-13
D86%
CA-22
D84%
CA-46
D87%
CA-48
D88%
CA-52
D79%
CO-08
D76%
CT-05
D78%
FL-13
D78%
IA-03
D78%
NH-01
D89%
NJ-07
D83%
NJ-09
D89%
NY-03
D86%
NY-04
D89%
NY-18
D83%
OH-01
D86%
OH-07
D83%
OR-05
D89%
PA-08
D76%
PA-10
D82%
TX-28
D85%
TX-34
D78%
VA-02
D79%
WA-03
D88%

Lean Democratic

Total 11
CO-03
D63%
FL-14
D73%
FL-25
D68%
IA-01
D74%
MI-07
D67%
NC-01
D61%
NY-17
D71%
OH-09
D74%
PA-01
D62%
PA-07
D66%
WI-03
D73%

Toss-up

Total 7Dem 4Rep 3
IA-02
R59%
MI-04
D56%
MT-01
R60%
NC-11
D58%
TX-15
D54%
TX-35
D53%
VA-01
R54%

Lean Republican

Total 12
AZ-02
R69%
CO-04
R68%
FL-07
R67%
FL-09
R72%
FL-22
R61%
ME-02
R61%
MI-10
R65%
MN-01
R73%
NY-21
R74%
SC-01
R74%
TX-23
R72%
WI-01
R67%

Likely Republican

Total 38
AK-AL
R84%
AL-02
R78%
AR-02
R88%
CO-05
R76%
FL-02
R87%
FL-04
R89%
FL-11
R84%
FL-12
R87%
FL-16
R85%
FL-27
R82%
GA-12
R86%
IN-05
R86%
KY-06
R78%
MN-08
R87%
MO-02
R79%
MO-05
R85%
MS-01
R84%
NC-03
R88%
NC-07
R86%
NC-09
R79%
NC-13
R86%
NC-14
R85%
NE-01
R84%
NJ-02
R83%
NV-02
R76%
NY-01
R77%
NY-02
R89%
OH-08
R89%
OH-10
R86%
OH-15
R83%
SC-02
R89%
SC-07
R89%
TN-09
R89%
TX-09
R83%
TX-32
R78%
VA-05
R83%
WA-05
R83%
WI-06
R83%

Safe Republican

Total 149
AL-01
R97%
AL-03
R96%
AL-04
R96%
AL-05
R95%
AL-06
R97%
AR-01
R97%
AR-03
R95%
AR-04
R93%
AZ-05
R92%
AZ-08
R90%
AZ-09
R96%
CA-05
R93%
CA-20
R96%
CA-23
R91%
CA-40
R100%
FL-01
R92%
FL-03
R97%
FL-05
R90%
FL-06
R96%
FL-08
R93%
FL-15
R90%
FL-17
R96%
FL-18
R90%
FL-19
R91%
FL-21
R94%
FL-26
R90%
FL-28
R91%
GA-01
R92%
GA-03
R94%
GA-07
R91%
GA-08
R92%
GA-09
R96%
GA-10
R96%
GA-11
R93%
GA-14
R95%
IA-04
R92%
ID-01
R96%
ID-02
R94%
IL-12
R95%
IL-15
R94%
IL-16
R91%
IN-02
R95%
IN-03
R96%
IN-04
R95%
IN-06
R97%
IN-08
R95%
IN-09
R93%
KS-01
R93%
KS-02
R91%
KS-04
R92%
KY-01
R97%
KY-02
R94%
KY-04
R93%
KY-05
R97%
LA-01
R96%
LA-03
R96%
LA-04
R94%
LA-05
R94%
LA-06
R92%
MD-01
R90%
MI-01
R91%
MI-02
R95%
MI-05
R92%
MI-09
R97%
MN-06
R90%
MN-07
R96%
MO-03
R94%
MO-04
R92%
MO-06
R92%
MO-07
R98%
MO-08
R98%
MS-03
R95%
MS-04
R97%
MT-02
R94%
NC-05
R90%
NC-06
R91%
NC-08
R90%
NC-10
R90%
ND-AL
R95%
NE-03
R98%
NJ-04
R95%
NY-11
R94%
NY-23
R90%
NY-24
R90%
OH-02
R91%
OH-04
R94%
OH-05
R92%
OH-06
R92%
OH-12
R91%
OH-14
R93%
OK-01
R93%
OK-02
R96%
OK-03
R97%
OK-04
R96%
OK-05
R96%
OR-02
R98%
PA-09
R93%
PA-11
R91%
PA-13
R95%
PA-14
R95%
PA-15
R93%
PA-16
R90%
SC-03
R98%
SC-04
R97%
SC-05
R93%
SD-AL
R97%
TN-01
R96%
TN-02
R96%
TN-03
R97%
TN-04
R94%
TN-05
R91%
TN-06
R95%
TN-07
R94%
TN-08
R90%
TX-01
R97%
TX-02
R91%
TX-03
R93%
TX-04
R94%
TX-05
R96%
TX-06
R94%
TX-08
R95%
TX-10
R90%
TX-11
R95%
TX-12
R91%
TX-13
R97%
TX-14
R94%
TX-17
R91%
TX-19
R95%
TX-21
R90%
TX-22
R91%
TX-24
R90%
TX-25
R92%
TX-26
R92%
TX-27
R92%
TX-31
R94%
TX-36
R92%
TX-38
R96%
UT-02
R92%
UT-03
R95%
UT-04
R95%
VA-06
R96%
VA-09
R96%
WA-04
R92%
WI-05
R91%
WI-07
R90%
WI-08
R90%
WV-01
R94%
WV-02
R96%
WY-AL
R95%

Projected flip races

CA-01
D
Mike McGuireMcGuire
R
James GallagherGallagher*
94%
6%
CA-41
D
Linda SánchezSánchez
R
Mitch ClemmonsClemmons
99%
1%
UT-01
D
Ben McAdamsMcAdams
R
Riley OwenOwen
94%
6%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
91%
9%
CA-48
D
Marni von WilpertWilpert
R
Jim DesmondDesmond
90%
10%

Combos

House

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 193
198-202
$2,506,829 vol11 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

230-233
226-229
$1,275,128 vol12 markets
House

Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
$1,101,412 vol10 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?

7
8
$199,828 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?

8
9
$58,678 vol7 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

9
11
$54,822 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in South Carolina?

1
2
$39,268 vol4 markets
House

How many House seats will Democrats win in Texas?

12
11
$36,660 vol8 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?

20
19
$30,062 vol10 markets
Seat Count

How many House seats will Democrats win in North Carolina?

5
4
$20,306 vol7 markets

More markets

131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$92,731,053 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.52x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.66x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$793,452 vol
Yes
2.81x
No
1.46x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$412,526 vol
Yes
1.29x
No
3.80x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$23,433 vol
David Morales
1.83x
Brett Smiley
1.93x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$5,907 vol
Proposition 38
1.97x
Proposition 42
2.01x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$9,951 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.38x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
2.66x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Virginia?

$4,144 vol
Question 3
1.31x
Question 2
1.01x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$361,238 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.67x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$14,104 vol
Yes
3.66x
No
1.25x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$2,218 vol
Question 3
2.46x
Question 5
2.46x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$8,836 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.89x
Ballot Measure 3
1.13x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,225 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.29x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
4.31x
Secretary of State

Nevada Secretary of State winner?

$3,264 vol
Sarah Slattery
Sarah Slattery
Sarah Slattery
1.14x
Scott Petersen
Scott Petersen
Scott Petersen
4.98x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$10,572 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
4.73x
Virginia Question 1
1.05x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$1,902 vol
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.70x
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.97x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$14,500 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.24x
Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$10,434 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.13x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
5.25x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$19,673 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.02x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.73x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$28,779 vol
Proposition 320
1.65x
Proposition 318
2.19x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,186 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.51x
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$238 vol
Democratic party
1.22x
Republican party
1.25x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$874 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.97x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.05x
US Elections

California Lieutenant Governor winner?

$100,652 vol
Fiona Ma
1.05x
Gloria Romero
18.8x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,307 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
7.85x
TX-15
D
Bobby PulidoPulido
R
Monica De La CruzCruz*
55%
45%
OH-07
D
Brian PoindexterPoindexter
R
Max MillerMiller*
81%
19%
FL-22
D
Pia DandiyaDandiya
R
Casey AskarAskar
47%
53%
MN-01
D
Jake JohnsonJohnson
R
Brad FinstadFinstad*
28%
72%
AL-02
D
Shomari FiguresFigures*
R
Rhett MarquesMarques
27%
73%
WI-03
D
Rebecca CookeCooke
R
Derrick Van OrdenOrden*
75%
25%
NE-02
D
Denise PowellPowell
R
Brinker HardingHarding
91%
9%
NC-01
D
Don DavisDavis*
R
Laurie BuckhoutBuckhout
61%
39%
CA-22
D
Randy VillegasVillegas
R
David ValadaoValadao*
85%
15%
VA-06
D
Beth MacyMacy
R
Ben ClineCline*
9%
91%
TX-28
D
Henry CuellarCuellar*
R
Tano TijerinaTijerina
80%
20%
NY-21
D
Blake GendebienGendebien
R
Anthony ConstantinoConstantino
28%
72%
VA-05
D
Tom PerrielloPerriello
R
John McGuireMcGuire*
18%
82%
FL-14
D
Kathy CastorCastor*
R
Mike BeltranBeltran
73%
27%
CA-06
D
Richard PanPan
I
Kevin KileyKiley
94%
6%
TX-23
D
Katy Padilla StoutStout
R
Brandon HerreraHerrera*
27%
73%
SC-06
D
Jim ClyburnClyburn*
R
John PetersonPeterson
95%
5%
NY-17
D
Cait ConleyConley
R
Mike LawlerLawler*
65%
35%
TX-07
D
Lizzie FletcherFletcher*
R
Alexander HaleHale
93%
7%
1–5 of 435
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