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  1. House

AZ-09 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Paul Gosar
Republican party
95%
▼ 2.1

Paul Gosar

Republican party
95%
▼ 2.1
Dani Sterbinsky
Democratic party
5%
▲ 2.1

Dani Sterbinsky

Democratic party
5%
▲ 2.1
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Arizona's 9th District margin of victory
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Arizona 09 House General Election: voter turnout
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AZ-09 House election: Dani Sterbinsky vote percent
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AZ-09 House election: Paul Gosar vote percent
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More Arizona and 2026 Midterm Races

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AZ-09 House winner?

Paul Gosar

Odds
97% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Sterbinsky
Nov 3 ·R +18.5margin forecast
Gosar
$17,977 vol
Race Intel

AZ-09 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentPaul Gosar (R)Running for re-election

AZ-09 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Dani SterbinskyD
    $437K
    86%
    $437K raised·86% small donors
  • Paul GosarR
    $580K
    21%
    $580K raised·21% small donors

Gosar vs. Sterbinsky Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsGosar 95%Sterbinsky 5% · $4,205 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past AZ-09 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +31.0%2020R +25.8%