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2026 Midterms
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US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums

2026 Midterm Election Predictions

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
Key races

Texas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Talarico64%
Paxton36%
Projected marginD +1.8

Maine Senate winner?

Nov 3
Jackson63%
Collins37%
Projected marginD +1.8

Michigan Senate winner?

Nov 3
El-Sayed68%
Rogers32%
Projected marginD +2.3

Ohio Senate winner?

Nov 3
Brown64%
Husted36%
Projected marginD +2.7

Iowa Senate winner?

Nov 3
Turek42%
Hinson58%
Projected marginR +1.1

Kansas Senate winner?

Nov 3
Hamilton40%
Marshall60%

Texas Governor winner?

Nov 3
Hinojosa29%
Abbott71%
Projected marginR +4.1

Nebraska Senate winner?

Nov 3
Osborn28%
Ricketts72%
Projected marginR +4.3

Georgia Governor winner?

Nov 3
Bottoms51%
Jackson49%
Projected marginD +0.3

Nevada Governor winner?

Nov 3
Ford58%
Lombardo42%
Projected marginD +0.7

MT-01 House winner?

Nov 3
Forstag34%
Flint66%
Projected marginR +1.9

NY-17 House winner?

Nov 3
Conley58%
Lawler42%
Projected marginD +0.9
SenateHouseGovernorStatesBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Midterms Forecast

Democrats favored to hold 26 seats, Republicans favored to hold 22 seats, with 2 toss-ups

14 days to Election
26Democrats
Republicans22
24 current Democratic seats26 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live
Races by rating
Safe Democratic
Total 15
DArizona91%DCalifornia97%DColorado97%DConnecticut97%DHawaii99%DIllinois97%DMassachusetts96%DMaryland99%DMaine95%DMichigan92%DMinnesota96%DNew Mexico94%DNew York94%DPennsylvania97%DRhode Island95%
Likely Democratic
Total 5
DAlaska82%DIowa86%DOhio76%DOregon82%DWisconsin81%
Lean Democratic
Total 0
No races
Toss-up
Total 2Dem 2Rep 0
DGeorgia52%DNevada59%
Lean Republican
Total 1
RTexas72%
Likely Republican
Total 5
RFlorida79%RKansas77%RNebraska89%ROklahoma89%RVermont77%
Safe Republican
Total 8
RAlabama94%RArkansas97%RIdaho98%RNew Hampshire94%RSouth Carolina93%RSouth Dakota98%RTennessee93%RWyoming98%
More markets
161 events
MarketPays outOdds
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$1,962,736 vol
Yes
1.18x
No
5.56x
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$103,497,221 vol
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
1.90x
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.97x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$599,873 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.09x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
11.7x
Senate

Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?

$93,437 vol
Yes
3.96x
No
1.28x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$1,684,632 vol
Yes
3.96x
No
1.28x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$735,592 vol
Yes
1.86x
No
1.97x
US Elections

Michigan State Senate winner?

$21,155 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.23x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
8.56x
US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$15,918 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.57x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.59x
US Elections

Arizona State Senate winner?

$20,883 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.28x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
5.90x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?

$38,344 vol
Proposition 134
1.90x
Proposition 135
1.97x
US Elections

Iowa State Senate winner?

$10,808 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.09x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
31.2x
US Elections

Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

$156,697 vol
Bo French
Bo French
Bo French
1.70x
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
Jon Rosenthal
2.09x
US Elections

New Hampshire State Senate winner?

$21,514 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.19x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
2.46x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$112,986 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.22x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
4.73x
US Elections

Arizona State House winner?

$7,073 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.29x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.31x
Referendums

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$47,829 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.67x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$7,700 vol
Question 3
1.28x
Question 5
1.15x
US Elections

Georgia State House winner?

$13,643 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.48x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.80x
Attorney General

Kansas Attorney General winner?

$9,580 vol
Chris Mann
Chris Mann
Chris Mann
1.70x
Kris Kobach
Kris Kobach
Kris Kobach
2.14x
US Elections

Maine State Senate winner?

$20,226 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.06x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
13.4x
US Elections

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

$22,974 vol
No, ≥4%
1.93x
No, ≥7%
2.73x
US Elections

Minnesota State Senate winner?

$17,294 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.12x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
8.56x
US Elections

Alaska State House winner?

$4,674 vol
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
1.38x
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
3.52x
Referendums

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$31,122 vol
Proposition 45
1.79x
Proposition 41
1.73x
Combos
Governor Combos

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Democratic Party
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Republican Party
Republican Party
$251,575 vol3 markets
Governor Combos

Closest Governor race this year?

Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
$124,089 vol24 markets
Governor Combos

Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?

Yes
No
$74,545 vol1 market
Governor Combos

How many Governors will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 2
Exactly 1
$30,384 vol6 markets
Governor Combos

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta this year?

Arizona
Arizona
Arizona
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
$10,856 vol8 markets
Governor Combos

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 24
At least 23
$9,650 vol8 markets
Governor Combos

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta this year?

Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
$5,859 vol15 markets
New York
D
Kathy HochulHochul*
R
Bruce BlakemanBlakeman
95%
Projected marginD +13.6
5%
Projected marginD +13.6
Florida
D
David JollyJolly
R
Byron DonaldsDonalds
22%
Projected marginR +4.9
78%
Projected marginR +4.9
Ohio
D
Amy ActonActon
R
Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy
75%
Projected marginD +4.5
25%
Projected marginD +4.5
Texas
D
Gina HinojosaHinojosa
R
Greg AbbottAbbott*
29%
Projected marginR +4.1
71%
Projected marginR +4.1
California
D
Xavier BecerraBecerra
R
Steve HiltonHilton
96%
Projected marginD +22.5
4%
Projected marginD +22.5
Iowa
D
Rob SandSand
R
Zach LahnLahn
86%
Projected marginD +4.9
14%
Projected marginD +4.9
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance BottomsBottoms
R
Rick JacksonJackson
51%
Projected marginD +0.3
49%
Projected marginD +0.3
Nevada
D
Aaron FordFord
R
Joe LombardoLombardo*
58%
Projected marginD +0.7
42%
Projected marginD +0.7
Massachusetts
D
Maura HealeyHealey*
R
Mike MinogueMinogue
96%
Projected marginD +24.9
4%
Projected marginD +24.9
Wisconsin
D
David CrowleyCrowley
R
Tom TiffanyTiffany
80%
Projected marginD +3.7
20%
Projected marginD +3.7
Pennsylvania
D
Josh ShapiroShapiro*
R
Stacy GarrityGarrity
98%
Projected marginD +25.6
2%
Projected marginD +25.6
Arizona
D
Katie HobbsHobbs*
R
Andy BiggsBiggs
89%
Projected marginD +7.9
11%
Projected marginD +7.9
Vermont
D
Amanda JanooJanoo
R
Phil ScottScott*
25%
Projected marginR +6.2
75%
Projected marginR +6.2
Minnesota
D
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
R
Lisa DemuthDemuth
96%
Projected marginD +11.2
4%
Projected marginD +11.2
Michigan
D
Jocelyn BensonBenson
R
John JamesJames
91%
9%
Oregon
D
Tina KotekKotek*
R
Christine DrazanDrazan
81%
Projected marginD +5.3
19%
Projected marginD +5.3
Oklahoma
D
Cyndi MunsonMunson
R
Mike MazzeiMazzei
12%
Projected marginR +6.8
88%
Projected marginR +6.8
Illinois
D
JB PritzkerPritzker*
R
Darren BaileyBailey
96%
Projected marginD +21.7
4%
Projected marginD +21.7
New Hampshire
D
Cinde WarmingtonWarmington
R
Kelly AyotteAyotte*
6%
Projected marginR +9.6
94%
Projected marginR +9.6
Tennessee
D
Jerri GreenGreen
R
Marsha BlackburnBlackburn
5%
Projected marginR +14.8
95%
Projected marginR +14.8
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