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Elections

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2026 Midterms

All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
SenateHouseGovernorBalance of Power
LiveKalshi Forecast

Democrats favored to hold 16 seats, Republicans favored to hold 33 seats, with 1 toss-up

Early forecasts · 70 days to Election
16Democrats
Republicans33
24 current Democratic seats26 current Republican seats
Timeline
Live

Races by rating

Safe Democratic

Total 9
DAlaska98%DAlabama97%DCalifornia97%DFlorida97%DIowa97%DIdaho97%DMinnesota97%DOregon97%DPennsylvania91%

Likely Democratic

Total 1
DWisconsin79%

Lean Democratic

Total 0
No races

Toss-up

Total 1Dem 0Rep 1
ROhio51%

Lean Republican

Total 1
RNevada62%

Likely Republican

Total 0
No races

Safe Republican

Total 24
RArkansas97%RArizona97%RColorado97%RConnecticut97%RGeorgia97%RHawaii97%RIllinois97%RKansas97%RMassachusetts99%RMaryland98%RMaine97%RMichigan97%RNebraska97%RNew Hampshire98%RNew Mexico97%RNew York97%ROklahoma99%RRhode Island97%RSouth Carolina99%RSouth Dakota97%RTennessee99%RTexas90%RVermont97%RWyoming99%

Combos

Governor Combos

Closest Governor race this year?

Iowa
Kansas
$227 vol14 markets
Governor

Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?

Republican Party
Tie
$46 vol3 markets
Governor Combos

How many Governors will lose reelection this year?

Exactly 0
Exactly 1
$19 vol6 markets
Governor Combos

Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?

Yes
No
$3 vol1 market
Texas
D
Gina HinojosaHinojosa
R
Greg AbbottAbbott*
13%
87%
Ohio
D
Amy ActonActon
R
Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy
50%
50%
Michigan
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
New York
D
Kathy HochulHochul*
R
Bruce BlakemanBlakeman
50%
50%
Idaho
D
Terri PickensPickens
R
Brad LittleLittle*
40%
60%
Maine
D
Hannah PingreePingree
R
Robert CharlesCharles
50%
50%
Illinois
D
JB PritzkerPritzker*
R
Darren BaileyBailey
75%
25%
Hawaii
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
Alabama
D
Doug JonesJones
R
Tommy TubervilleTuberville
97%
3%
Pennsylvania
D
Josh ShapiroShapiro*
R
Stacy GarrityGarrity
18%
82%
Connecticut
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
Kansas
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
New Mexico
D
Deb HaalandHaaland
R
Greggory D. HullHull
50%
50%
Georgia
D
Keisha Lance BottomsBottoms
R
Rick JacksonJackson
50%
50%
Nevada
D
Aaron FordFord
R
Joe LombardoLombardo*
38%
62%
Maryland
D
Wes MooreMoore*
R
Dan CoxCox
50%
50%
Massachusetts
D
Democratic partyDemocrat*
R
Republican partyRepublican
50%
50%
Florida
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
40%
60%
New Hampshire
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican*
67%
33%
Wisconsin
D
Democratic partyDemocrat
R
Republican partyRepublican
76%
24%
1–5 of 36
Showing 5 of 36

More markets

131 events
MarketPays outOdds
Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

$92,729,998 vol
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
Karen Bass
1.52x
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman
2.66x
US Elections

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

$793,452 vol
Yes
2.81x
No
1.46x
Senate

Blue wave this year?

$412,517 vol
Yes
1.31x
No
3.66x
Other US Elections

Providence Mayor winner?

$23,433 vol
David Morales
1.83x
Brett Smiley
1.93x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in California?

$5,907 vol
Proposition 38
1.97x
Proposition 42
2.01x
Attorney General

Arizona Attorney General winner?

$9,951 vol
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
Kris Mayes
1.38x
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
Warren Petersen
2.66x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Virginia?

$4,144 vol
Question 3
1.31x
Question 2
1.01x
Senate

Blue tsunami this year?

$361,238 vol
Yes
2.24x
No
1.67x
US Elections

Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?

$14,104 vol
Yes
3.66x
No
1.23x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

$2,218 vol
Question 3
2.46x
Question 5
2.46x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?

$8,836 vol
Ballot Measure 2
2.89x
Ballot Measure 3
1.13x
Attorney General

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

$15,225 vol
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
Keith Ellison
1.29x
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
Ronald J. Schutz
4.31x
US Elections

Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?

$10,572 vol
Missouri Amendment 3
4.73x
Virginia Question 1
1.05x
Attorney General

Georgia Attorney General winner?

$1,902 vol
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
Brian Strickland
1.70x
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
Tanya Miller
1.97x
Other US Elections

Pennsylvania State Senate winner?

$874 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.97x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
2.05x
Senate

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)

$14,492 vol
Yes
1.67x
No
2.24x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?

$28,779 vol
Proposition 320
1.65x
Proposition 318
2.19x
Attorney General

Texas Attorney General winner?

$10,434 vol
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
Mayes Middleton
1.13x
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
Nathan Johnson
5.25x
Other US Elections

Minnesota State House winner?

$19,673 vol
Democratic party
Democratic party
Democratic party
1.02x
Republican party
Republican party
Republican party
4.73x
US Elections

Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?

$6,320 vol
Amendment 2
1.13x
Amendment 1
1.09x
Other US Elections

Texas House of Representatives winner

$2,186 vol
Republican Party
1.19x
Democratic Party
4.51x
Other US Elections

Texas State House winner?

$238 vol
Democratic party
1.22x
Republican party
1.25x
US Elections

California Lieutenant Governor winner?

$100,652 vol
Fiona Ma
1.05x
Gloria Romero
18.8x
Attorney General

New York Attorney General winner?

$17,307 vol
Letitia James
Letitia James
Letitia James
1.07x
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
Saritha Komatireddy
7.85x