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Trending
Frequency
Fed decision in March?
Fed maintains rate
1.12
x
89
%
Cut 25bps
9.41
x
10
%
$1,786,402 vol
5 markets
Unemployment in January 2026?
Above 4.4%
2.59
x
37
%
Above 4.3%
1.48
x
66
%
$228,284 vol
10 markets
Powell out as Chair?
Before May 2026
8.56
x
11
%
Before November
93.52
x
1
%
$8,602,378 vol
6 markets
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
At least 1 billion
13.41
x
7
%
At least 25 billion
18.75
x
5
%
$8,301,129 vol
9 markets
US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Above 3.5%
1.65
x
59
%
Above 4%
2.40
x
40
%
$1,963,471 vol
16 markets
Inflation in January? (CPI YoY)
Above 2.4%
1.86
x
52
%
Above 2.5%
2.98
x
32
%
$623,819 vol
11 markets
GDP growth in 2025?
2.1 to 2.5
1.25
x
79
%
2.6 to 3.0
5.25
x
18
%
$1,940,971 vol
12 markets
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 5%
3.08
x
31
%
Above 6%
7.25
x
13
%
$124,107 vol
10 markets
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, R-Senate
2.09
x
46
%
D-House, D-Senate
2.89
x
33
%
$485,192 vol
4 markets
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 2 cuts
3.80
x
25
%
Exactly 3 cuts
4.31
x
22
%
$618,233 vol
21 markets
Jobs numbers this month?
Above 60,000
1.90
x
51
%
Above 70,000
2.29
x
42
%
$112,215 vol
13 markets
CPI in January?
Above 0.2%
2.24
x
43
%
Above 0.1%
1.40
x
70
%
$172,358 vol
6 markets
US Gas prices up this week?
Yes
3.40
x
28
%
No
1.36
x
72
%
$86,500 vol
1 market
When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?
Before Jul 1, 2026
1.79
x
54
%
Before Jun 1, 2026
2.73
x
35
%
$333,301 vol
22 markets
Unemployment rate in January?
Exactly 4.4%
2.73
x
35
%
Exactly 4.5%
3.52
x
27
%
$44,557 vol
23 markets
Blue tsunami this year?
Yes
3.29
x
29
%
No
1.38
x
71
%
$39,680 vol
1 market
Recession this year?
Yes
4.51
x
21
%
No
1.25
x
79
%
$265,959 vol
1 market
When will the next US recession start?
Q1 2026
13.41
x
7
%
Q4 2025
18.75
x
5
%
$338,237 vol
6 markets
Fed funds rate after March meeting?
Above 3.50%
1.12
x
89
%
Above 3.75%
46.79
x
2
%
$39,857 vol
11 markets
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Yes
1.05
x
95
%
No
18.75
x
5
%
$447,153 vol
1 market
Will wages be above inflation in 2025?
Yes
1.03
x
97
%
No
31.21
x
3
%
$85,560 vol
1 market
2026: Trump's dream year?
Yes
8.56
x
11
%
No
1.12
x
89
%
$177,454 vol
1 market
What will the Bank of England do at the February meeting?
Maintain current rate
1.05
x
95
%
Hike more than 25bp
46.79
x
2
%
$47,722 vol
5 markets
How high will inflation get this year?
At least 3%
1.62
x
60
%
At least 3.5%
3.40
x
28
%
$10,460 vol
5 markets