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Economics

Fed decision in March?
Fed maintains rate1.12x
Cut 25bps8.56x
$1,807,959 vol5 markets
Unemployment in January 2026?
Above 4.4%2.59x
Above 4.3%1.48x
$228,733 vol10 markets
Powell out as Chair?
Before May 20268.56x
Before November93.52x
$8,605,048 vol6 markets
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
At least 1 billion31.21x
At least 25 billion18.75x
$8,317,384 vol9 markets
US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Above 3.5%1.67x
Above 4%2.34x
$1,963,958 vol16 markets
GDP growth in 2025?
2.1 to 2.51.26x
2.6 to 3.05.56x
$1,942,554 vol12 markets
Inflation in January? (CPI YoY)
Above 2.4%1.86x
Above 2.5%2.98x
$623,887 vol11 markets
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 5%3.08x
Above 6%7.25x
$124,107 vol10 markets
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, R-Senate
D-House, R-Senate2.09x
D-House, D-Senate
D-House, D-Senate2.89x
$485,531 vol4 markets
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 2 cuts4.13x
Exactly 3 cuts4.51x
$618,395 vol21 markets
Jobs numbers this month?
Above 60,0001.90x
Above 70,0002.29x
$112,242 vol13 markets
US Gas prices up this week?
Yes5.56x
No1.19x
$88,535 vol1 market
When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?
Before Jul 1, 20261.73x
Before Jun 1, 20262.73x
$333,559 vol22 markets
Unemployment rate in January?
Exactly 4.4%2.66x
Exactly 4.5%3.52x
$44,618 vol23 markets
CPI in January?
Above 0.2%2.29x
Above 0.1%1.40x
$172,589 vol6 markets
Recession this year?
Yes4.51x
No1.25x
$265,959 vol1 market
Blue tsunami this year?
Yes3.29x
No1.38x
$39,887 vol1 market
Fed funds rate after March meeting?
Above 3.50%1.12x
Above 3.75%46.79x
$40,101 vol11 markets
When will the next US recession start?
Q1 202613.41x
Q4 202518.75x
$338,237 vol6 markets
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Yes1.05x
No18.75x
$447,153 vol1 market
What will the Bank of England do at the February meeting?
Maintain current rate1.05x
Hike more than 25bp46.79x
$48,189 vol5 markets
2026: Trump's dream year?
Yes7.85x
No1.13x
$177,569 vol1 market
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
Yes3.29x
No1.38x
$75,082 vol1 market
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
Before Jan 1, 20271.97x
Before Nov 1, 20261.90x
$84,828 vol22 markets