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Economics

Fed decision in March?
Fed maintains rate1.12x
Cut 25bps9.41x
$1,786,402 vol5 markets
Unemployment in January 2026?
Above 4.4%2.59x
Above 4.3%1.48x
$228,284 vol10 markets
Powell out as Chair?
Before May 20268.56x
Before November93.52x
$8,602,378 vol6 markets
How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?
At least 1 billion13.41x
At least 25 billion18.75x
$8,301,129 vol9 markets
US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Above 3.5%1.65x
Above 4%2.40x
$1,963,471 vol16 markets
Inflation in January? (CPI YoY)
Above 2.4%1.86x
Above 2.5%2.98x
$623,819 vol11 markets
GDP growth in 2025?
2.1 to 2.51.25x
2.6 to 3.05.25x
$1,940,971 vol12 markets
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 5%3.08x
Above 6%7.25x
$124,107 vol10 markets
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
D-House, R-Senate
D-House, R-Senate2.09x
D-House, D-Senate
D-House, D-Senate2.89x
$485,192 vol4 markets
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Exactly 2 cuts3.80x
Exactly 3 cuts4.31x
$618,233 vol21 markets
Jobs numbers this month?
Above 60,0001.90x
Above 70,0002.29x
$112,215 vol13 markets
CPI in January?
Above 0.2%2.24x
Above 0.1%1.40x
$172,358 vol6 markets
US Gas prices up this week?
Yes3.40x
No1.36x
$86,500 vol1 market
When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?
Before Jul 1, 20261.79x
Before Jun 1, 20262.73x
$333,301 vol22 markets
Unemployment rate in January?
Exactly 4.4%2.73x
Exactly 4.5%3.52x
$44,557 vol23 markets
Blue tsunami this year?
Yes3.29x
No1.38x
$39,680 vol1 market
Recession this year?
Yes4.51x
No1.25x
$265,959 vol1 market
When will the next US recession start?
Q1 202613.41x
Q4 202518.75x
$338,237 vol6 markets
Fed funds rate after March meeting?
Above 3.50%1.12x
Above 3.75%46.79x
$39,857 vol11 markets
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Yes1.05x
No18.75x
$447,153 vol1 market
Will wages be above inflation in 2025?
Yes1.03x
No31.21x
$85,560 vol1 market
2026: Trump's dream year?
Yes8.56x
No1.12x
$177,454 vol1 market
What will the Bank of England do at the February meeting?
Maintain current rate1.05x
Hike more than 25bp46.79x
$47,722 vol5 markets
How high will inflation get this year?
At least 3%1.62x
At least 3.5%3.40x
$10,460 vol5 markets