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Growth
Employment
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Economics
Fed decision in December?
Cut 25bps
Cut 25bps
94%
Fed maintains rate
Fed maintains rate
7%
↑1%
$296,372,758 volShow more
3
Jobs numbers in November 2025?
Above 50,000
Above 50,000
53%
↑53%
Above 75,000
Above 75,000
37%
↑37%
$12,866,222 volShow more
8
Number of rate cuts in 2025?
Exactly 3 cuts
Exactly 3 cuts
93%
↑1%
Exactly 2 cuts
Exactly 2 cuts
7%
$20,683,580 volShow more
11
Gas prices in the US this month?
Above 2.90
Above 2.90
59%
↑29%
Above 2.95
Above 2.95
19%
↑29%
$37,685,392 volShow more
8
Inflation in November 2025? (CPI YoY)
Above 3.0%
Above 3.0%
42%
↑8%
Above 2.9%
Above 2.9%
81%
↑5%
$24,290,305 volShow more
6
CPI in November 2025?
Above 0.2%
Above 0.2%
20%
↑11%
Above 0.3%
Above 0.3%
8%
↑2%
$16,062,846 volShow more
3
Core inflation in November 2025? (Core CPI YoY)
Above 2.9
Above 2.9
61%
↑15%
Above 3.0
Above 3.0
31%
↑9%
$2,022,609 volShow more
7
Unemployment in November 2025?
Above 4.5%
Above 4.5%
39%
↑2%
Above 4.4%
Above 4.4%
76%
↑8%
$6,442,369 volShow more
8
Fed funds rate in December?
Above 3.75%
Above 3.75%
5%
↑3%
Above 4.50%
Above 4.50%
1%
↑1%
$41,082,575 volShow more
9
Who will be the top three wealthiest people in the world?
Jeff Bezos
29%
↑19%
Larry Ellison
80%
↑20%
$647,542 volShow more
4
US GDP growth in Q4 2025?
Above 2.0%
Above 2.0%
49%
↑2%
Above 1.75%
Above 1.75%
63%
↑63%
$9,716,539 volShow more
9
Inflation in 2025?
2.6% to 3%
2.6% to 3%
66%
↑10%
3.1% to 3.5%
3.1% to 3.5%
41%
↑8%
$1,917,534 volShow more
11
Powell out as Chair?
Before May 2026
Before May 2026
17%
↑2%
Before 2026
Before 2026
3%
↑1%
$7,860,758 vol
Gas prices in the US up this week?
Above 3.001
Above 3.001
2%
↑31%
$2,256,339 vol
December 2025 Fed Combo: Rate & Dissents
Federal funds rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
Federal funds rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
93%
↑1%
Federal funds rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Federal funds rate: No change, Dissents: >0
8%
↑1%
$88,327 volShow more
2
What will the Bank of Japan do at the December BOJ meeting?
Hike 21-40 basis points
Hike 21-40 basis points
91%
↑5%
Maintain current rate
Maintain current rate
11%
↑1%
$136,235 volShow more
5
Next Fed rate hike?
Before 2027
Before 2027
18%
↑1%
Before 2026
Before 2026
2%
$758,528 vol
Recession before 2027?
Starts
Starts
29%
$5,016,490 vol
Recession this year?
Starts
Starts
2%
↑2%
$5,016,490 vol
How much revenue will tariffs bring in this year?
At least $200 billion
At least $200 billion
94%
↑2%
At least $300 billion
At least $300 billion
8%
↑2%
$95,324 volShow more
2
Will Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
Yes
2%
↑1%
No
98%
↑1%
$511,596 vol
Will the Fed do a rate cut of more than 25bps this year?
In 2025
3%
↑1%
$830,291 vol
How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?
Above $2.75
Above $2.75
12%
↑6%
Above $3
Above $3
12%
↑8%
$63,679 vol
State of the economy at the end of 2025?
Soft landing
96%
↑6%
Stagflation
5%
$306,162 volShow more
2
November 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
10%
↑1%
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
9%
↑1%
$25,860 volShow more
3
How high will gas prices in Florida get this year?
Above $3.25
Above $3.25
14%
Above $3.00
Above $3.00
98%
↑1%
$36,637 vol
What will the European Central Bank do at the December ECB meeting?
Maintain current rate
Maintain current rate
97%
Cut 1-25 basis points
Cut 1-25 basis points
6%
↑1%
$38,572 volShow more
3
Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year?
Before 2026
3%
↑1%
$341,967 vol
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
At least 450
At least 450
10%
↑4%
At least 475
At least 475
3%
↑4%
$91,396 volShow more
9
What will the Bank of England do at the December BOE meeting?
Cut 1-25 basis points
Cut 1-25 basis points
93%
↑2%
Maintain current rate
Maintain current rate
6%
↑6%
$26,716 volShow more
3
Will egg prices go up in November 2025?
above 0%
25%
$1,785,525 vol
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
Before 2027
33%
↑6%
$13,327 vol
December 2025 CPI Combo: CPI & CPI (YoY)
CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%
CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%
82%
↑82%
CPI: Above 0.2%, YOYCPI: Above 3.1%
CPI: Above 0.2%, YOYCPI: Above 3.1%
6%
↑1%
$66,684 volShow more
3
CPI core in November 2025?
Above 0.2%
Above 0.2%
18%
↑12%
Above 0.3%
Above 0.3%
6%
↑8%
$3,997,349 volShow more
2
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2025?
Before Jan 1, 2026
2%
$590,587 vol
What will the People's Bank of China do at the December PBOC meeting?
Maintain current rate
Maintain current rate
84%
↑1%
Hike more than 10bp
Hike more than 10bp
7%
↑1%
$12,929 volShow more
3
Wealthiest person in the world this year?
Larry Ellison
Larry Ellison
4%
↑2%
Elon Musk
Elon Musk
95%
↑1%
$819,590 volShow more
5
How low will gas prices in NY get this year?
Below $2.75
Below $2.75
11%
↑1%
Below $2.50
Below $2.50
1%
$36,584 vol
How high will gas prices in California get this year?
Above $5
Above $5
6%
↑6%
$61,635 vol
How high will gas prices in NY get this year?
Above $3.25
Above $3.25
14%
↑5%
Above $3.50
Above $3.50
8%
↑2%
$37,779 vol
Will rates hit zero this year?
In 2025
2%
$57,618 vol
Will Trump cut income taxes for the highest earners this year?
Yes
1%
↑2%
No
99%
↑2%
$279,404 vol
GDP growth in 2025?
2.1 to 2.5
2.1 to 2.5
57%
↑3%
1.6 to 2.0
1.6 to 2.0
43%
↑3%
$693,065 volShow more
10
Will total US debt be above $38T at the end of 2025?
Above $38 trillion
96%
↑2%
$141,507 vol
Which countries will have a recession?
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
43%
↑9%
Japan
Japan
58%
↑1%
$86,422 volShow more
2
More tech layoffs this year than in 2024?
Up in 2025
Up in 2025
95%
↑2%
$61,138 vol
Costco raises hot dog combo price?
Before 2028
Before 2028
34%
↑5%
Before 2027
Before 2027
14%
↑1%
$84,557 volShow more
1
How low will gas prices in Texas get this year?
Below $2.25
Below $2.25
16%
↑6%
Below $2.50
Below $2.50
90%
↑7%
$72,270 volShow more
1
How low will gas prices in Florida get this year?
Below $2.75
Below $2.75
14%
↑8%
Below $2.50
Below $2.50
7%
$5,798 vol
How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Above $625
Above $625
40%
↑1%
Above $650
Above $650
16%
↑6%
$11,771 volShow more
2
When will Anduril officially announce an IPO?
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
57%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Dec 1, 2026
41%
$13,192 volShow more
16
How much will core PCE increase in November 2025?
Above 0.3%
Above 0.3%
11%
↑1%
Above 0.2%
Above 0.2%
99%
↑46%
$511,608 volShow more
3
How low will gas prices in California get this year?
Below $4.25
Below $4.25
27%
↑7%
Below $4.00
Below $4.00
1%
↑3%
$93,812 vol
Will Mamdani freeze the rent next year?
Rent freeze
46%
$13,883 vol
How high will the inflation level get in 2025?
At least 8%
At least 8%
3%
↑1%
At least 5%
At least 5%
1%
↑2%
$511,940 volShow more
1
Will wages be above inflation this year?
Above 0%
92%
↑2%
$41,124 vol
Core inflation in 2025?
2.6% to 3%
2.6% to 3%
72%
↑1%
3.1% to 3.5%
3.1% to 3.5%
34%
$139,135 volShow more
11
ADP employment change in February?
Above 50000
Above 50000
42%
↑42%
Above 25000
Above 25000
64%
$205,135 volShow more
5
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
By 2030
By 2030
27%
$28,278 vol
Bank of Canada decision this month?
Maintains rate
Maintains rate
97%
Cut 25bps
Cut 25bps
6%
↑2%
$67,609 volShow more
3
How much solar capacity will be installed in the US this year?
At least 40 GWdc
At least 40 GWdc
51%
↑5%
At least 50 GWdc
At least 50 GWdc
14%
↑1%
$20,102 volShow more
3
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
Before Apr 1, 2027
Before Apr 1, 2027
47%
↑11%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Before Mar 1, 2027
49%
↑13%
$25,641 volShow more
16
Will Trump try and impose export tariffs?
Before 2025
Before 2025
3%
↑3%
$30,456 vol
Another US credit rating downgrade this year?
Rating reduced
Rating reduced
3%
↑1%
$183,604 vol
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?
Before 2030
Before 2030
50%
↑1%
Before 2029
Before 2029
45%
↑4%
$105,032 volShow more
3
When will the next US recession start?
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
15%
↑1%
Q4 2025
Q4 2025
14%
$252,667 volShow more
4
How much will New York City rent grow by this year?
Above 6%
Above 6%
52%
↑18%
Above 5%
Above 5%
93%
↑8%
$46,814 volShow more
6
How much will the Fed’s balance sheet shrink before 2026?
6.5 trillion
6.5 trillion
12%
6 trillion
6 trillion
6%
↑11%
$27,996 vol
What will the Bank of Mexico do at the December BdeM meeting?
Cut 1-25 basis points
Cut 1-25 basis points
92%
↑1%
Maintain current rate
Maintain current rate
8%
↑1%
$28,360 volShow more
3
When will Whoop officially announce an IPO?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
37%
Before Oct 1, 2027
Before Oct 1, 2027
35%
↑35%
$433 volShow more
7
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
Above 5%
Above 5%
61%
$117,972 vol
How many barrels per day oil will the US create this year?
At least 14000000
At least 14000000
24%
↑3%
At least 14500000
At least 14500000
8%
↑5%
$24,425 volShow more
2
How low will the price of natural gas be this year?
$1.74 or below
$1.74 or below
9%
↑4%
$1.99 or below
$1.99 or below
9%
$10,681 volShow more
1
Rent price increase in SF this year?
Above 3%
Above 3%
97%
Above 2%
Above 2%
97%
↑3%
$37,959 volShow more
2
Who will be CNBC's number 1 US State for Business next year?
North Carolina
North Carolina
39%
Virginia
Virginia
36%
↑7%
$1,288 volShow more
8
When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
50%
↑42%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Dec 1, 2026
41%
↑27%
$12,128 volShow more
16
How much will US debt increase this year?
More than 140% of GDP
More than 140% of GDP
7%
↑2%
More than 130% of GDP
More than 130% of GDP
1%
↑9%
$64,251 volShow more
1
When will Deel officially announce an IPO?
Before Feb 1, 2027
Before Feb 1, 2027
48%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Before Mar 1, 2027
52%
$5,954 volShow more
16
US semiconductor production growth this year?
Above 16%
Above 16%
69%
↑3%
Above 14%
Above 14%
68%
↑4%
$23,828 volShow more
4
What will the Reserve Bank of Australia do at the December RBA meeting?
Maintain current rate
Maintain current rate
99%
Cut 1-25 basis points
Cut 1-25 basis points
7%
↑3%
$22,538 volShow more
3
Will Trump halve the trade deficit?
Halved
34%
↑3%
$24,159 vol
Who will be the world's first trillionaire?
Elon Musk
Elon Musk
58%
↑9%
Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg
3%
↑3%
$39,619 volShow more
9
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
Above 9%
Above 9%
44%
Above 8%
Above 8%
56%
↑5%
$26,863 volShow more
8
Will a tax on unrealized capital gains become law this year?
Becomes law Before 2026
2%
$48,813 vol
When will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels?
Before Dec 2025
Before Dec 2025
4%
↑2%
$24,255 vol
When will Stripe officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
26%
↑10%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
40%
$8,294 volShow more
16
Strategic petroleum reserve size this year?
Below 300 million barrels
Below 300 million barrels
8%
↑2%
$14,085 vol
When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 30, 2027
Before Jun 30, 2027
17%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Before Mar 1, 2027
20%
↑20%
$3,869 volShow more
16
When will Rippling officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
36%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
37%
$390 volShow more
16
When will Ramp officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
40%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
46%
$872 volShow more
16
When will Oura officially announce an IPO?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
42%
Before Oct 1, 2027
Before Oct 1, 2027
44%
$133 volShow more
7
When will Olipop officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
27%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
34%
$108 volShow more
16
When will Glean officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
33%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
31%
$301 volShow more
16
When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?
Before May 1, 2026
Before May 1, 2026
50%
Before Jan 1, 2026
Before Jan 1, 2026
40%
$600 volShow more
16
When will Discord officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before Jun 1, 2026
64%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
64%
$10,653 volShow more
16
When will Cluely officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
12%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
9%
$135 volShow more
16
When will Brex officially announce an IPO?
Before Jun 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2027
45%
Before May 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2027
43%
$1,260 volShow more
16