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Best AI at the end of 2025?
Gemini
Gemini
77%
↑5%
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
16%
↑2%
$20,092,612 volShow more
5
Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
Anthropic
Anthropic
7%
Moonshot AI
Moonshot AI
2%
↑5%
$1,058,196 volShow more
7
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?
OpenAI
72%
↑60%
Anthropic
Anthropic
25%
↑61%
$1,089,466 volShow more
5
What will be the top AI model this month?
gemini-3-pro
gemini-3-pro
83%
↑2%
gemini-2.5-pro
gemini-2.5-pro
1%
$3,513,788 volShow more
7
When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD?
Before Jun 2026
Before Jun 2026
45%
↑2%
Before May 2026
Before May 2026
42%
↑5%
$1,913,310 volShow more
4
AI capability growth this year?
At least 1500 elo score
At least 1500 elo score
18%
↑7%
At least 1550 elo score
At least 1550 elo score
4%
$333,363 volShow more
1
Will Samsung release a trifold phone this year?
Before Jan 2026
Before Jan 2026
95%
↑1%
Before Feb 2026
Before Feb 2026
95%
$200,252 vol
TSA avg check-ins from Dec 1 to 7, 2025?
Above 2.45 million
Above 2.45 million
35%
↑25%
Above 2.4 million
Above 2.4 million
81%
↑8%
$5,148,794 volShow more
19
US grants license for new nuclear reactor?
Grants license
8%
↑5%
$624,183 vol
How much better will OpenAI's models be than Google's?
Above 0 points
Above 0 points
17%
↑7%
Above 20 points
Above 20 points
9%
↑8%
$89,876 volShow more
4
Will OpenAI raise the cost of ChatGPT this year?
Before 2026
5%
↑1%
$66,986 vol
How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
Above 180
Above 180
8%
↑2%
Above 160
Above 160
97%
$552,170 volShow more
1
Will a Chinese AI model reach #1 this year?
Before 2026
Before 2026
7%
↑4%
$95,314 vol
How high will AI models score on SWE-Bench this year?
At least 80%
At least 80%
36%
↑9%
At least 90%
At least 90%
8%
↑4%
$111,486 vol
New cancer drug passes phase 1 trial?
Passes Phase I, Phase II announced
2%
↑3%
$59,153 vol
Will Meta release Llama 5 before January?
Before 2026
7%
↑3%
$92,357 vol
AI regulation becomes federal law this year?
Before 2026
Before 2026
2%
↑2%
$150,367 vol
Will Shaun Maguire leave Sequoia this year?
Shaun Maguire
12%
↑10%
$13,753 vol
Where will Stephen Colbert work next this year?
HBO / Max
HBO / Max
10%
↑4%
Apple TV+
Apple TV+
10%
↑6%
$15,481 volShow more
6
Will Elon make a Bluesky account before 2027?
Before 2027
Before 2027
4%
↑3%
$40,183 vol
Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida this year?
Before 2026
5%
↑4%
$16,509 vol
Where will Linda Yaccarino work?
Amazon
6%
↑1%
Omnicom Group
4%
$2,872 volShow more
2
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
Before 2030
50%
↑1%
$43,157 vol
Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket reach orbit this year?
Before 2026
3%
$36,049 vol
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Earbuds/Headphones
47%
↑1%
Clip-on device for clothing
48%
$17,034 volShow more
8
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 this year?
Before 2026
6%
↑4%
$24,062 vol
Will Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
4%
↑2%
$57,386 vol
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
Before 2030
21%
↑4%
$18,206 vol
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2030
40%
↑2%
Before 2028
Before 2028
20%
$410,410 volShow more
2
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
Before 2030
30%
↑6%
$18,683 vol
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess this year?
Before 2026
3%
↑2%
$58,989 vol
Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?
Before 2027
37%
$87,091 vol
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?
Before 2027
22%
↑8%
$4,492 vol
Which of these smaller space companies will launch next?
Neutron
7%
↑4%
Antares/MLV
5%
↑2%
$9,230 volShow more
3
New York Times settles OpenAI lawsuit?
New York Times settles
15%
↑4%
$43,082 vol
Highest score of any LLM on OSWorld this year?
At least 70
At least 70
20%
↑16%
At least 80
At least 80
13%
$26,518 volShow more
1
SpaceX Starship 12th launch?
Before March
Before March
55%
↑12%
Before April
Before April
99%
$2,545,353 volShow more
4
How big is 3I/ATLAS?
More than 2.0 km
More than 2.0 km
63%
↑13%
More than 1.5 km
More than 1.5 km
77%
↑6%
$10,815 volShow more
2
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Before 2035
Before 2035
55%
Before 2030
Before 2030
42%
↑2%
$8,837 volShow more
2
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
Before 2050
Before 2050
17%
↑4%
$2,353 vol
How much compute will AI models be trained with this year?
More than 500 billion petaFLOP
More than 500 billion petaFLOP
20%
More than 750 billion petaFLOP
More than 750 billion petaFLOP
16%
↑1%
$23,905 vol
How many non-SpaceX US commercial space launches will there be this year?
At least 30
At least 30
1%
At least 45
At least 45
6%
$9,281 vol
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Before 2040
Before 2040
44%
Before 2035
Before 2035
39%
$7,571 volShow more
1
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2028
Before 2028
13%
↑2%
Before 2027
Before 2027
6%
↑2%
$153,721 volShow more
1
US semiconductor production growth this year?
Above 16%
Above 16%
69%
↑3%
Above 14%
Above 14%
68%
↑4%
$23,828 volShow more
4
EV market share in 2030?
Above 30%
Above 30%
46%
Above 20%
Above 20%
73%
↑6%
$11,718 volShow more
2
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
Before 2030
Before 2030
74%
$15,892 vol
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
New York Times wins
58%
↑1%
$36,367 vol
Will Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
Before 2027
57%
↑7%
$5,913 vol
Who will leave xAI this year?
Zihang Dai
Zihang Dai
4%
Daniel Rowland
Daniel Rowland
4%
$1,237 volShow more
6
Who will leave OpenAI this year?
Brad Lightcap
Brad Lightcap
10%
↑86%
Greg Brockman
Greg Brockman
13%
$1,193 volShow more
6
Who will leave Meta this year?
Alexandr Wang
Alexandr Wang
49%
Chris Cox
Chris Cox
7%
$48,685 volShow more
1
Will Jony Ive leave OpenAI this year?
Before 2026
7%
$706 vol
Who will leave Anthropic this year?
Jan Leike
Jan Leike
2%
Jack Clark
Jack Clark
5%
$256 volShow more
6
Will California pass a law mandating AI models have a 'kill switch'?
Before Jan 1, 2026
5%
↑1%
$51,791 vol
Who will join xAI this year?
Will Depue
Will Depue
12%
Srinivas Narayanan
Srinivas Narayanan
21%
$4,282 volShow more
5
Who will join OpenAI this year?
Jack Clark
Jack Clark
3%
Igor Babuschkin
Igor Babuschkin
4%
$5 volShow more
4
Who will join Anthropic this year?
Alexandr Wang
Alexandr Wang
4%
Igor Babuschkin
Igor Babuschkin
4%
$0 volShow more
2
Will Apple announce any iPhone assembly operations in the US this year?
In 2025
7%
↑5%
$5,799 vol
AI wins IMO gold medal this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
6%
↑2%
$361,810 vol
Will SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?
Before 2027
23%
$6,946 vol
Who will win the Fields Medal next year?
John Pardon
John Pardon
35%
Jacob Tsimerman
Jacob Tsimerman
60%
↑7%
$3,870 volShow more
8
Will Donald Trump launch a metaverse this year?
Before 2026
5%
$2,811 vol