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  1. House

MO-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Mark Alford
Republican party
95.8%

Mark Alford

Republican party
95.8%
Jordan Herrera
Democratic party
4.2%

Jordan Herrera

Democratic party
4.2%
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MO-04 House winner?

Mark Alford

Odds
98% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Herrera
Nov 3 ·R +29.5margin forecast
Alford
$37,788 vol
Race Intel

MO-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentMark Alford (R)Running for re-election

MO-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Jordan HerreraD
    $41.7K
    37%
    $41.7K raised·37% small donors
  • Mark AlfordR
    $1.6M
    1.1%
    $1.6M raised·1.1% small donors

Alford vs. Herrera Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsAlford 96%Herrera 4% · $8,354 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past MO-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +21.2%2020R +18.8%