Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive104AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE104
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

TX-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Pat Fallon
Republican party
98.8%

Pat Fallon

Republican party
98.8%
Jason Pearce
Democratic party
1.2%

Jason Pearce

Democratic party
1.2%
People are also trading
Series Image
Texas Senate: Exact outcome
Series Image
Texas's 4th District margin of victory
Series Image
Texas 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
Texas Governor winner?
Series Image
Texas Governor-Senate combo
Series Image
TX-35 House winner?
Series Image
TX-15 House winner?
Series Image
TX-34 House winner?
Series Image
TX-23 House winner?
Series Image
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner

More Texas and 2026 Midterm Races

More Texas races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonTexas Governor race: Abbott vs. HinojosaTX-15 House raceTX-23 House raceTX-35 House raceTX-28 House raceTX-34 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Maine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. WhatleyOhio Governor race: Acton vs. Ramaswamy

More races

Massachusetts Governor race: Healey vs. MinogueWisconsin Governor race: Crowley vs. TiffanyPennsylvania Governor race: Shapiro vs. GarrityMontana Senate race: Alme vs. BodnarArizona Governor race: Hobbs vs. BiggsMississippi Senate race: Hyde-Smith vs. ColomVermont Governor race: Scott vs. JanooMinnesota Governor race: Klobuchar vs. DemuthMichigan Governor race: Benson vs. JamesIdaho Senate race: Risch vs. Achilles
TX-04 House winner?

Pat Fallon

Odds
98% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Pearce
Nov 3 ·R +19.5margin forecast
Fallon
$9,726 vol
Race Intel

TX-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentPat Fallon (R)Running for re-election

TX-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Jason PearceD
    $16.3K
    29%
    $16.3K raised·29% small donors
  • Pat FallonR
    $933.2K
    0.4%
    $933.2K raised·0.4% small donors

Fallon vs. Pearce Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsFallon 99%Pearce 1% · $5,412 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past TX-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +24.6%2020R +17.8%