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Politics
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
71%
↑15%
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh
16%
↑10%
$6,465,306 volShow more
21
Who will be elected President of Honduras?
Nasry Asfura
Nasry Asfura
92%
↑33%
Salvador Nasralla
Salvador Nasralla
8%
↑29%
$3,371,761 volShow more
3
Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration this year?
Kash Patel
Kash Patel
7%
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
8%
$3,288,803 volShow more
12
Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
37%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10%
$30,428,750 volShow more
36
Trump out as President this year?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
0%
↑1%
$9,131,205 vol
Republican nominee in 2028?
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
50%
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
9%
$8,311,805 volShow more
26
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth
32%
↑2%
Pam Bondi
Pam Bondi
13%
↑1%
$2,975,426 volShow more
23
World leaders out this year?
Nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro
16%
↑2%
Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer
4%
$2,031,164 volShow more
11
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended this year?
legislation extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits
17%
↑10%
$856,555 vol
Which party will win the U.S. House next year?
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
76%
↑1%
Republican Party
Republican Party
25%
↑2%
$5,086,163 vol
When will Trump announce his new Chair of the Federal Reserve?
Before January 15
68%
↑5%
Before 2026
16%
↑4%
$1,295,739 volShow more
4
How much government spending will Trump cut this year?
At least 1 billion
At least 1 billion
7%
↑1%
At least 25 billion
At least 25 billion
5%
$5,863,772 volShow more
7
What will Powell say during his December press conference?
Probability
Probability
53%
Tariff Inflation
Tariff Inflation
55%
↑3%
$5,503,630 volShow more
39
Who will President Trump pardon this year?
Justin Sun
Justin Sun
9%
↑3%
Steve Bannon
Steve Bannon
7%
↑2%
$8,888,698 volShow more
22
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
Before Jan 1, 2026
3%
↑2%
$2,671,807 vol
Next US Presidential Election Winner?
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance
30%
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom
21%
$4,742,028 volShow more
19
Republican nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton
53%
↑5%
John Cornyn
John Cornyn
35%
↑2%
$446,312 volShow more
3
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Before 2028
24%
↑2%
$1,368,014 vol
Will Trump release any of the Epstein Files?
Before Dec 20, 2025
Before Dec 20, 2025
63%
↑1%
Before 2026
Before 2026
72%
↑4%
$7,363,907 volShow more
6
Who will Trump meet with this year?
Justin Trudeau
Justin Trudeau
10%
↑2%
Nicolás Maduro
Nicolás Maduro
9%
↑2%
$2,648,162 volShow more
1
The President's RCP approval rating on Jan 1, 2026?
43.0 to 43.9
43.0 to 43.9
33%
↑13%
42.0 to 42.9
42.0 to 42.9
31%
↑2%
$530,962 volShow more
10
Who will run for public office next year?
Mark Moran
Mark Moran
57%
↑25%
Danica Patrick
Danica Patrick
27%
$69,005 volShow more
9
Will Trump be impeached?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
54%
↑2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
22%
↑1%
$422,088 volShow more
2
Will Zohran Mamdani be arrested before January?
Before Jan 2026
1%
↑2%
$187,767 vol
Will Trump eliminate the Department of Education this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
2%
↑1%
$3,982,400 vol
Who will win the Chilean presidential election?
José Antonio Kast
José Antonio Kast
96%
Jeannette Jara
Jeannette Jara
3%
↑2%
$1,742,062 volShow more
10
Powell out as Chair?
Before May 2026
Before May 2026
17%
↑2%
Before 2026
Before 2026
3%
↑1%
$7,860,747 vol
Will Nord Stream 2 open?
Before 2027
15%
Before 2026
2%
↑1%
$24,653 vol
Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?
Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds
74%
↑8%
James Fishback
James Fishback
11%
↑19%
$147,938 volShow more
5
Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Graham Platner
Graham Platner
67%
↑4%
Janet Mills
Janet Mills
38%
↑1%
$1,131,568 volShow more
5
Will daylight saving become permanent this year?
Becomes law
2%
↑1%
$220,153 vol
December 2025 Fed Combo: Rate & Dissents
Federal funds rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
Federal funds rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
93%
↑1%
Federal funds rate: No change, Dissents: >0
Federal funds rate: No change, Dissents: >0
8%
↑1%
$88,327 volShow more
2
Who will win the governorship of Minnesota?
Democratic party
Democratic party
74%
↑7%
Republican party
Republican party
29%
↑3%
$48,700 vol
Who will be the next governor of California?
Eric Swalwell
Eric Swalwell
42%
↑5%
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer
15%
↑1%
$576,594 volShow more
21
Will Marijuana be Rescheduled?
Before 2027
Before 2027
61%
↑2%
Before 2026
Before 2026
6%
↑1%
$229,659 vol
World leaders out before 2027?
Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán
48%
↑8%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
48%
↑10%
$60,998 volShow more
27
Who will visit the White House before January?
Laura Loomer
Laura Loomer
73%
↑6%
Brian Kemp
Brian Kemp
34%
↑17%
$1,461,115 volShow more
20
Which party will win the U.S. Senate next year?
Republican Party
Republican Party
68%
Democratic Party
Democratic Party
32%
$2,449,996 vol
Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Jasmine Crockett
Jasmine Crockett
45%
↑1%
James Talarico
James Talarico
39%
↑1%
$231,059 volShow more
9
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy resign this year?
Before 2026
3%
↑1%
$228,056 vol
Will Susie Wiles still be Trump's Chief of Staff on Jan 1, 2026?
On Jan 1, 2026
92%
↑1%
$43,153 vol
Deportations in Trump's first year?
At least 500,000
At least 500,000
26%
↑1%
At least 2,000,000
At least 2,000,000
5%
↑4%
$1,108,392 volShow more
3
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Han Duck-soo
Han Duck-soo
54%
Mahmoud Khalil
Mahmoud Khalil
39%
$1,226,833 volShow more
20
Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2025?
Kevin Hassett
10%
↑19%
Kevin Warsh
9%
↑4%
$37,947 volShow more
4
Who will win the governorship in Arizona?
Democratic party
Democratic party
56%
↑2%
Republican party
Republican party
44%
↑1%
$69,563 vol
Peak US National Debt this year?
At least $39 trillion
At least $39 trillion
3%
↑1%
At least $40 trillion
At least $40 trillion
6%
$113,851 volShow more
7
How many Supreme Court justices will vote for Trump's tariffs?
3
3
42%
↑14%
4
4
19%
↑2%
$106,572 volShow more
8
Who will win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
Democratic party
Democratic party
83%
↑1%
Republican party
Republican party
21%
$48,386 vol
November 2025 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
10%
↑1%
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
9%
↑1%
$25,860 volShow more
3
How many government employees will Trump cut in 2025?
More than 250,000
More than 250,000
12%
↑2%
More than 500,000
More than 500,000
5%
↑1%
$1,439,104 volShow more
2
Democratic nominee for Governor in New York?
Kathy Hochul
Kathy Hochul
86%
Antonio Delgado
Antonio Delgado
12%
↑3%
$126,556 volShow more
7
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa?
Republican party
Republican party
66%
↑3%
Democratic party
Democratic party
35%
$50,208 vol
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in December?
1
1
37%
↑13%
2
2
40%
↑18%
$1,527,681 volShow more
4
Who will be charged with a federal crime before 2027?
Jack Smith
Jack Smith
49%
↑8%
James Clapper
James Clapper
57%
↑1%
$5,830 volShow more
20
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
During Trump's term
During Trump's term
28%
$413,922 vol
Which vaccines will RFK end recommendations for this year?
Hepatitis B
5%
↑2%
Yellow Fever
3%
↑4%
$432,030 volShow more
25
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before August 2026
Before August 2026
28%
↑3%
Before 2026
Before 2026
2%
$731,758 vol
Will a bill that prefunds HSAs/FSAs become law this year?
Yes
4%
↑3%
No
96%
↑3%
$42,851 vol
Who will win the Bucharest mayoral election?
Ciprian Ciucu
Ciprian Ciucu
43%
↑14%
Daniel Baluta
Daniel Baluta
44%
↑18%
$42,603 volShow more
11
December 2025 CPI Combo: CPI & CPI (YoY)
CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%
CPI: Above 0.1%, YOYCPI: Above 2.9%
82%
↑82%
CPI: Above 0.2%, YOYCPI: Above 3.1%
CPI: Above 0.2%, YOYCPI: Above 3.1%
6%
↑1%
$66,684 volShow more
3
Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?
Before 2027
26%
↑26%
Before 2026
3%
↑2%
$82,436 vol
Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
Before Nov 3, 2026
Before Nov 3, 2026
41%
↑13%
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
38%
↑16%
$104,170 volShow more
1
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
67%
↑67%
Before 2027
Before 2027
80%
↑80%
$382,983 volShow more
1
Will Israel and Syria normalize relations this year?
Before Jan 1, 2026
1%
↑2%
$311,142 vol
Will Trump sue the BBC this year?
Before Jan 2026
Before Jan 2026
8%
↑16%
$23,507 vol
Which countries will impose tariffs on the US this year?
Russia
Russia
10%
↑1%
China
China
6%
↑3%
$407,751 volShow more
31
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
Before 2027
42%
↑5%
Before April 2026
23%
$2,112,569 volShow more
1
Donald Trump out as President before 2027?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
21%
$180,239 vol
What countries will Trump visit this year?
Hungary
Hungary
4%
↑3%
Germany
Germany
4%
↑4%
$2,245,758 volShow more
24
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
44%
↑4%
Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer
60%
↑7%
$161,886 volShow more
31
Will Trump meet Putin again this year?
Vladimir Putin
7%
↑4%
$117,897 vol
Will Trump try to fire Jerome Powell this year?
Yes
3%
↑1%
No
97%
↑1%
$60,011 vol
When will France announce a snap election?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
55%
Before Jan 1, 2026
Before Jan 1, 2026
4%
↑1%
$44,315 vol
What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on January 1, 2026?
Between 20% and 29.99%
Between 20% and 29.99%
77%
Between 10% and 19.99%
Between 10% and 19.99%
17%
↑1%
$360,573 volShow more
5
US controls part of Greenland, Canada, and Panama Canal this year?
Before 2026
Before 2026
1%
$1,232,891 vol
Who will win the Senate race in West Virginia?
Republican party
Republican party
97%
Democratic party
Democratic party
5%
$4,488 vol
Who will visit Mar-a-Lago before 2026?
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
↑15%
Mohammed bin Salman
Mohammed bin Salman
3%
↑7%
$173,396 volShow more
8
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
Before 2027
Before 2027
54%
Before 2026
Before 2026
1%
↑1%
$259,854 volShow more
1
Will Trump cut income taxes for the highest earners this year?
Yes
1%
↑2%
No
99%
↑2%
$279,404 vol
Who will win the governorship in Florida?
Republican party
Republican party
91%
↑1%
Democratic party
Democratic party
12%
↑1%
$6,446 vol
Chuck Schumer out as Senate Minority Leader?
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
36%
↑16%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Before Nov 3, 2026
58%
↑28%
$107,225 volShow more
1
Who will win the governorship in Ohio?
Republican party
Republican party
62%
↑4%
Democratic party
Democratic party
39%
↑2%
$45,829 vol
Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
27%
↑5%
Oman
Oman
19%
↑3%
$126,390 volShow more
9
Will Zelenskyy be removed by the Ukrainian parliament this year?
Before 2026
3%
↑1%
$39,970 vol
Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?
Alan Wilson
50%
↑11%
Pamela Evette
34%
↑1%
$42,018 volShow more
3