Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive104AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE104
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

CA-23 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Jay Obernolte
Republican party
98.1%

Jay Obernolte

Republican party
98.1%
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Democratic party
1.9%

Tessa Lynn Hodge

Democratic party
1.9%
People are also trading
Series Image
California's 23rd District margin of victory
Series Image
California 23 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
CA-23 House election: Jay Obernolte vote percent
Series Image
CA-23 House election: Tessa Lynn Hodge vote percent
Series Image
Texas Senate winner?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Series Image
Ohio Governor winner?
Series Image
New York Governor winner?
Series Image
Texas Governor winner?

More California and 2026 Midterm Races

More California races

California Governor race: Becerra vs. HiltonCA-11 House raceCA-22 House raceCA-45 House raceCA-34 House raceCA-07 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. Whatley

More races

Maryland Governor race: Moore vs. CoxNebraska Governor race: Pillen vs. WalzNew Mexico Senate race: Luján vs. MarkerConnecticut Governor race: Lamont vs. FazioOklahoma Senate race: Hern vs. ThomasSouth Carolina Governor race: Wilson vs. JohnsonRhode Island Senate race: Reed vs. McKayColorado Senate race: Hickenlooper vs. BaisleyVirginia Senate race: Warner vs. MizusawaWest Virginia Senate race: Capito vs. Anderson
CA-23 House winner?

Jay Obernolte

Odds
98% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Hodge
Nov 3 ·R +14.9margin forecast
Obernolte
$3,796 vol
Race Intel

CA-23 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJay Obernolte (R)Running for re-election

CA-23 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Jay ObernolteR
    $1.8M
    0.1%
    $1.8M raised·0.1% small donors
  • Tessa Lynn HodgeD
    $122.5K
    38%
    $122.5K raised·38% small donors

Obernolte vs. Hodge Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsObernolte 98%Hodge 2% · $3,586 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past CA-23 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +19.4%2020R +12.1%