Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive104AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE104
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

KS-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Ron Estes
Republican party
94.9%

Ron Estes

Republican party
94.9%
Katy Tyndell
Democratic party
5.1%

Katy Tyndell

Democratic party
5.1%
People are also trading
Series Image
Kansas's 4th District margin of victory
Series Image
Kansas 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
KS-04 House election: Katy Tyndell vote percent
Series Image
KS-04 House election: Ron Estes vote percent
Series Image
Texas Senate winner?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Series Image
Ohio Governor winner?
Series Image
New York Governor winner?
Series Image
Texas Governor winner?

More Kansas and 2026 Midterm Races

More Kansas races

Kansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonKansas Governor race: Masterson vs. Holscher

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. WhatleyOhio Governor race: Acton vs. Ramaswamy

More races

Florida Senate race: Moody vs. NixonMassachusetts Governor race: Healey vs. MinogueWisconsin Governor race: Crowley vs. TiffanyPennsylvania Governor race: Shapiro vs. GarrityMontana Senate race: Alme vs. BodnarArizona Governor race: Hobbs vs. BiggsMississippi Senate race: Hyde-Smith vs. ColomVermont Governor race: Scott vs. JanooMinnesota Governor race: Klobuchar vs. DemuthMichigan Governor race: Benson vs. James
KS-04 House winner?

Ron Estes

Odds
97% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Tyndell
Nov 3 ·R +14.7margin forecast
Estes
$17,761 vol
Race Intel

KS-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentRon Estes (R)Running for re-election

KS-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Katy TyndellD
    $546K
    16%
    $546K raised·16% small donors
  • Ron EstesR
    $2.2M
    0.5%
    $2.2M raised·0.5% small donors

Estes vs. Tyndell Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsEstes 95%Tyndell 5% · $12.9K traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past KS-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +23.3%2020R +21.7%