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2026 Midterms
Trending
Frequency
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
2026 Midterm Election Predictions
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power.
Learn more
All markets
US Elections
Midterms
2028
Senate
House
Governor
International elections
Brazil
Referendums
Key races
All
Texas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Talarico
64%
Paxton
36%
Projected margin
D +1.8
Maine Senate winner?
Nov 3
Jackson
63%
Collins
37%
Projected margin
D +1.8
Michigan Senate winner?
Nov 3
El-Sayed
68%
Rogers
32%
Projected margin
D +2.3
Ohio Senate winner?
Nov 3
Brown
64%
Husted
36%
Projected margin
D +2.7
Iowa Senate winner?
Nov 3
Turek
42%
Hinson
58%
Projected margin
R +1.1
Kansas Senate winner?
Nov 3
Hamilton
40%
Marshall
60%
Texas Governor winner?
Nov 3
Hinojosa
29%
Abbott
71%
Projected margin
R +4.1
Nebraska Senate winner?
Nov 3
Osborn
28%
Ricketts
72%
Projected margin
R +4.3
Georgia Governor winner?
Nov 3
Bottoms
51%
Jackson
49%
Projected margin
D +0.3
Nevada Governor winner?
Nov 3
Ford
58%
Lombardo
42%
Projected margin
D +0.7
MT-01 House winner?
Nov 3
Forstag
34%
Flint
66%
Projected margin
R +1.9
NY-17 House winner?
Nov 3
Conley
58%
Lawler
42%
Projected margin
D +0.9
Senate
House
Governor
States
Balance of Power
The “S&P” for politics, powered by Kalshi markets — one number to represent the shifts in political power.
Learn more
Combos
Democrats
have a
63% chance
to control the Senate
Senate forecast
Democrats
have a
91% chance
to control the House
House forecast
Democrats
have a
90% chance
of winning the 2028 Presidential Election
Presidential forecast
US Elections
Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Democrats sweep
65
%
D-House, R-Senate
27
%
$45,103,974 vol
4 markets
Senate
Blue wave this year?
Yes
81
%
No
19
%
$1,937,117 vol
1 market
Texas Elections
Texas Governor-Senate combo
Greg Abbott and James Talarico win
43
%
Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win
35
%
$128,610 vol
4 markets
Senate
Blue tsunami this year?
Yes
51
%
No
49
%
$734,878 vol
1 market
Senate
Red wave this year?
Yes
6
%
No
94
%
$96,911 vol
1 market
Senate
Minnesota Governor-Senate combo
Amy Klobuchar and Peggy Flanagan win
87
%
Amy Klobuchar and Michele Tafoya win
13
%
$76,909 vol
4 markets
Alaska elections
Alaska Governor-Senate combo
Democrats sweep
68
%
Republicans sweep
16
%
$102,408 vol
4 markets
Ohio Elections
Ohio Governor-Senate combo
Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win
65
%
Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win
26
%
$73,966 vol
4 markets
Kansas Elections
Kansas Governor-Senate combo
Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win
63
%
Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win
20
%
$82,234 vol
4 markets
Maine Elections
Maine Governor-Senate combo
Hannah Pingree and Troy Jackson win
61
%
Hannah Pingree and Susan Collins win
38
%
$50,123 vol
4 markets
Senate
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
Yes
22
%
No
78
%
$61,276 vol
1 market
California
LA Mayor - CA Governor Combo
Nithya Raman and Xavier Becerra
56
%
Karen Bass and Xavier Becerra
41
%
$79,921 vol
4 markets
Georgia Elections
Georgia Governor-Senate combo
Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff win
51
%
Rick Jackson and Jon Ossoff win
48
%
$95,442 vol
4 markets
Florida Elections
Florida Governor-Senate combo
Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win
81
%
David Jolly and Ashley Moody win
12
%
$8,783 vol
4 markets
Iowa Elections
Iowa Governor-Senate combo
Rob Sand and Ashley Hinson win
47
%
Rob Sand and Josh Turek win
42
%
$72,923 vol
4 markets
Senate
How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)
At least 5
49
%
At least 4
71
%
$1,959 vol
8 markets
Senate
Iowa Blue Wave Combo
Yes
34
%
No
66
%
$23,888 vol
1 market
Nebraska Elections
Nebraska Governor-Senate combo
Jim Pillen and Pete Ricketts win
70
%
Jim Pillen and Dan Osborn win
24
%
$1,247 vol
4 markets
Mixed Combos
Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?
State Superintendent of Schools
87
%
Commissioner of Labor
88
%
$44,511 vol
9 markets
Senate
How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year?
5
27
%
4
31
%
$5,162 vol
7 markets
Mixed Combos
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress this year?
At least 1
29
%
At least 3
13
%
$24,258 vol
10 markets
House Combos
Will the same party control the U.S. House and Senate?
Yes
68
%
No
32
%
$1,917 vol
1 market
Senate
Midterms: Blue trickle?
Yes
91
%
No
9
%
$22,300 vol
1 market
Senate
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Blexas)
Yes
68
%
No
32
%
$31,589 vol
1 market
