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  1. House

NY-20 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Paul Tonko
Democratic party
95.2%

Paul Tonko

Democratic party
95.2%
Ralph Ambrosio
Republican party
4.8%

Ralph Ambrosio

Republican party
4.8%
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NY-20 House winner?

Paul Tonko

Odds
99% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Tonko
Nov 3 ·D +28.3margin forecast
Ambrosio
$3,392 vol
Race Intel

NY-20 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentPaul Tonko (D)Running for re-election

NY-20 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Paul TonkoD
    $1.2M
    8.9%
    $1.2M raised·8.9% small donors
  • Ralph AmbrosioR
    $60.6K
    19%
    $60.6K raised·19% small donors

Tonko vs. Ambrosio Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsTonko 95%Ambrosio 5% · $1,776 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past NY-20 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +14.1%2020D +19.2%