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  1. House

NY-12 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Micah Lasher
Democratic party
99.1%
▲ 0.4

Micah Lasher

Democratic party
99.1%
▲ 0.4
Caroline Shinkle
Republican party
0.9%
▼ 0.4

Caroline Shinkle

Republican party
0.9%
▼ 0.4
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NY-12 House winner?

Micah Lasher

Odds
99% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Lasher
Nov 3 ·D +63.5margin forecast
Shinkle
$34,503 vol
Race Intel

NY-12 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentJerrold Nadler (D)Not seeking re-election

NY-12 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Caroline ShinkleR
    $155.1K
    15%
    $155.1K raised·15% small donors
  • Micah LasherD
    $3.3M
    2.7%
    $3.3M raised·2.7% small donors

Lasher vs. Shinkle Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsLasher 99%Shinkle 1% · $3,497 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past NY-12 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +63.6%2020D +71.4%