Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive106AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE106
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

PA-16 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Mike Kelly
Republican party
94.3%
▼ 1

Mike Kelly

Republican party
94.3%
▼ 1
Justin Wagner
Democratic party
5.7%
▲ 1

Justin Wagner

Democratic party
5.7%
▲ 1
People are also trading
Series Image
Pennsylvania Governor winner?
Series Image
Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory
Series Image
Pennsylvania 16 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
PA-01 House winner?
Series Image
Pennsylvania State Senate winner?
Series Image
PA-10 House winner?
Series Image
PA-08 House winner?
Series Image
PA-15 House winner?
Series Image
PA-09 House winner?
Series Image
PA-07 House winner?

More Pennsylvania and 2026 Midterm Races

More Pennsylvania races

Pennsylvania Governor race: Shapiro vs. GarrityPA-07 House racePA-01 House racePA-08 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. Whatley

More races

Delaware Senate race: Coons vs. KatzWyoming Senate race: Hageman vs. ByrdIllinois Senate race: Stratton vs. TracyAlabama Senate race: Moore vs. WessOregon Senate race: Merkley vs. SmithHawaii Governor race: Green vs. CorderySouth Dakota Governor race: Rhoden vs. AhlersWyoming Governor race: Barlow vs. CasnerIdaho Governor race: Little vs. PickensArkansas Governor race: Sanders vs. Love
PA-16 House winner?

Mike Kelly

Odds
96% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Wagner
Nov 3 ·R +11.6margin forecast
Kelly
$14,457 vol
Race Intel

PA-16 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentMike Kelly (R)Running for re-election

PA-16 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Justin WagnerD
    $222.6K
    32%
    $222.6K raised·32% small donors
  • Mike KellyR
    $1.2M
    0.2%
    $1.2M raised·0.2% small donors

Kelly vs. Wagner Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsKelly 94%Wagner 6% · $13.3K traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past PA-16 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +22.8%2020R +20.6%