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  1. House

CA-06 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Richard Pan
Democratic party
96%
▲ 1.5

Richard Pan

Democratic party
96%
▲ 1.5
Kevin Kiley
Independent
4.5%
▼ 0.7

Kevin Kiley

Independent
4.5%
▼ 0.7
Republican party
0.1%
▼ 0.3

Republican party

0.1%
▼ 0.3
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CA-06 House winner?

Richard Pan

Odds
96% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Pan
Nov 3
Kiley
$61,875 vol
Race Intel

CA-06 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentAmi Bera (D)

CA-06 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidatePollsRaisedSmall Donors
  • Richard PanD36.9%
    36.9%
    $1.1M
    22%
    $1.1M raised·22% small donors
  • Kevin KileyI—
    —
    $3M
    14%
    $3M raised·14% small donors

Pan vs. Kiley Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averagePan 36.9%No head-to-head polling average yet
Kalshi oddsPan 96%Kiley 5% · $60K traded
Polling averages · Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past CA-06 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024D +8.4%2020D +12.6%