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  1. House

WA-05 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Michael Baumgartner
Republican party
88%
▼ 1

Michael Baumgartner

Republican party
88%
▼ 1
Carmela Conroy
Democratic party
12%
▲ 1

Carmela Conroy

Democratic party
12%
▲ 1
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More Washington and 2026 Midterm Races

More Washington races

WA-03 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

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WA-05 House winner?

Michael Baumgartner

Odds
90% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Conroy
Nov 3 ·R +8.6margin forecast
Baumgartner
$126,076 vol
Race Intel

WA-05 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentMichael Baumgartner (R)Running for re-election

WA-05 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Carmela ConroyD
    $396.2K
    22%
    $396.2K raised·22% small donors
  • Michael BaumgartnerR
    $2.1M
    11%
    $2.1M raised·11% small donors

Baumgartner vs. Conroy Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsBaumgartner 88%Conroy 12% · $121.6K traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past WA-05 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +10.7%2020R +10.0%