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House

TX-38 House winner?

Resolves by winning party

100

Chance

Jon Bonck

Republican party

92%

Jon Bonck

Republican party

92%

Melissa McDonough

Democratic party

8%

Melissa McDonough

Democratic party

8%

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TX-38 House winner?

Jon Bonck

Dollars$

Odds

98% chance

Max payout

Nov 3, 2027

$0

McDonough

Nov 3 ·R +12.1margin forecast

Bonck

$22,620 vol

Race Intel

TX-38 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election

IncumbentWesley Hunt (R)Not seeking re-election

TX-38 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors

Jon BonckR
$2.2M
1.4%
$2.2M raised·1.4% small donors
Melissa McDonoughD
$117.1K
16%
$117.1K raised·16% small donors

Bonck vs. McDonough Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet

Kalshi oddsBonck 92%McDonough 8% · $8,395 traded

Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past TX-38 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +20.9%2020R +17.9%