Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive104AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE104
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center
© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

SD-AL House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100
Chance
Marty Jackley
Republican party
95.4%
▼ 0.4

Marty Jackley

Republican party
95.4%
▼ 0.4
Nicole Gronli
Democratic party
4.6%
▲ 0.4

Nicole Gronli

Democratic party
4.6%
▲ 0.4
People are also trading
Series Image
South Dakota Senate winner?
Series Image
South Dakota margin of victory
Series Image
South Dakota at large House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
South Dakota Secretary of State winner?
Series Image
South Dakota Governor winner?
Series Image
SD-AL House election: Marty Jackley vote percent
Series Image
SD-AL House election: Nikki Gronli vote percent
Series Image
South Dakota Attorney General winner?
Series Image
Texas Senate winner?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. House?

More South Dakota and 2026 Midterm Races

More South Dakota races

South Dakota Senate race: Rounds vs. BengsSouth Dakota Governor race: Rhoden vs. Ahlers

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedIowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. Whatley

More races

Colorado Governor race: Weiser vs. MarxAlaska Governor raceNew Jersey Senate race: Booker vs. MurphyKansas Governor race: Masterson vs. HolscherAlabama Governor race: Tuberville vs. JonesNew Mexico Governor race: Haaland vs. HullLouisiana Senate race: Letlow vs. DavisMaine Governor race: Pingree vs. CharlesMassachusetts Senate race: Markey vs. DeatonRhode Island Governor race: Foulkes vs. Block
SD-AL House winner?

Marty Jackley

Odds
96% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Gronli
Nov 3
Jackley
$7,596 vol
Race Intel

SD-AL House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentDusty Johnson (R)Not seeking re-election

SD-AL House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Marty JackleyR
    $1.7M
    1.1%
    $1.7M raised·1.1% small donors
  • Nikki GronliD
    $387.2K
    34%
    $387.2K raised·34% small donors

Jackley vs. Gronli Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsJackley 95%Gronli 5% · $5,812 traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past SD-AL Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +29.2%2020R +26.2%