Cash
Portfolio
TrendingMidtermsElectionsPoliticsSportsCultureCryptoCommoditiesClimateEconomicsMentionsFinanceTech & Science
PredictLive104AccountSocial
MARKETSPERPSLIVE104
Product
Kalshi ProPerpetual FuturesMarketsIncentive programInstitutionsAPI & developers
Company
AboutKalshi ResearchBlogCareersPolicy CenterBrand Kit
Help
Help CenterFAQFee scheduleTrading hoursRegulatoryTrust Center

© 2026 Kalshi Inc. · All rights reserved
PrivacyData Terms of ServiceTrading ProhibitionsFAQ for Finance Professionals
Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
Series Image
  1. House

IA-04 House winner?

Resolves by winning party
100


Chance

Chris McGowan
Republican party
97.8%

Chris McGowan

Republican party
97.8%

Dave Dawson
Democratic party
2.2%

Dave Dawson

Democratic party
2.2%

People are also trading
Series Image
Iowa's 4th District margin of victory
Series Image
Iowa 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Series Image
IA-04 House election: Chris McGowan vote percent
Series Image
IA-04 House election: Dave Dawson vote percent
Series Image
Texas Senate winner?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Series Image
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Series Image
Ohio Governor winner?
Series Image
New York Governor winner?
Series Image
Texas Governor winner?

More Iowa and 2026 Midterm Races

More Iowa races

Iowa Senate race: Hinson vs. TurekIowa Governor race: Sand vs. LahnIA-01 House raceIA-03 House race

Control of Congress

Which party will win the Senate?Which party will win the House?Congress balance of power

Top races

Texas Senate race: Talarico vs. PaxtonMaine Senate race: Jackson vs. CollinsMichigan Senate race: El-Sayed vs. RogersOhio Senate race: Brown vs. HustedNew York Governor race: Hochul vs. BlakemanKansas Senate race: Marshall vs. HamiltonSouth Carolina Senate race: Graham vs. AndrewsFlorida Governor race: Donalds vs. JollyNorth Carolina Senate race: Cooper vs. WhatleyOhio Governor race: Acton vs. Ramaswamy

More races

Wyoming Senate race: Hageman vs. ByrdIllinois Senate race: Stratton vs. TracyAlabama Senate race: Moore vs. WessOregon Senate race: Merkley vs. SmithHawaii Governor race: Green vs. CorderySouth Dakota Governor race: Rhoden vs. AhlersWyoming Governor race: Barlow vs. CasnerIdaho Governor race: Little vs. PickensArkansas Governor race: Sanders vs. LoveTexas Governor race: Abbott vs. Hinojosa
IA-04 House winner?

Chris McGowan

Odds
97% chance
Max payout
Nov 3, 2027
$0
Dawson
Nov 3 ·R +21.0margin forecast
McGowan
$22,943 vol
Race Intel

IA-04 House Race 2026

ElectionNov 3, 2026General election
IncumbentRandy Feenstra (R)Not seeking re-election

IA-04 House Candidates and Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSmall Donors
  • Chris McGowanR
    $853.3K
    0.7%
    $853.3K raised·0.7% small donors
  • Dave DawsonD
    $240.2K
    33%
    $240.2K raised·33% small donors

McGowan vs. Dawson Polls vs. Kalshi Odds

Polling averageNo public polling average for this race yet
Kalshi oddsMcGowan 98%Dawson 2% · $15.8K traded
Fundraising: FEC filings · Small-donor ≤ $200. This does not include third party expenditures.

Past IA-04 Election Results

Past presidential elections

2024R +31.5%2020R +26.0%