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AI
Trending
Frequency
Best AI this month?
Gemini
1.01
x
99
%
Ernie
93.52
x
1
%
$2,272,452 vol
7 markets
What will be the top AI model this month?
gemini-3-pro
1.02
x
98
%
gpt-5.2
93.52
x
1
%
$1,539,339 vol
10 markets
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
2.52
x
38
%
Before 2028
3.66
x
26
%
$525,160 vol
5 markets
Tesla Optimus released this year?
Yes
3.66
x
26
%
No
1.33
x
74
%
$188,910 vol
1 market
Will AI regulation become law this year?
Yes
2.89
x
33
%
No
1.46
x
67
%
$16,069 vol
1 market
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
1.76
x
55
%
Anthropic
2.40
x
40
%
$90,552 vol
13 markets
Which AI will be the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena?
Gemini
1.50
x
65
%
Grok
4.73
x
20
%
$36,926 vol
7 markets
AI capability growth before July?
At least 1550 score
1.86
x
52
%
At least 1575 score
3.52
x
27
%
$21,768 vol
9 markets
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes
1.70
x
57
%
No
2.24
x
43
%
$41,333 vol
1 market
GPT beaten by another LLM this year?
Yes
1.01
x
99
%
No
93.52
x
1
%
$157,121 vol
1 market
How high will AI models score on SWE-Bench in 2025?
At least 60%
1.04
x
96
%
At least 70%
1.05
x
95
%
$146,478 vol
4 markets
Sora released to public before 2026?
Yes
1.01
x
99
%
No
93.52
x
1
%
$16,124 vol
1 market
US semiconductor production growth in 2025?
Above 5%
1.01
x
99
%
Above 7%
1.07
x
93
%
$23,663 vol
6 markets
Elon Musk wins OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes
15.64
x
6
%
No
1.06
x
94
%
$5,782 vol
1 market
OpenAI's for-profit arm ends in 2024?
Yes
93.52
x
1
%
No
1.01
x
99
%
$5,182 vol
1 market
Will OpenAI stop being a non-profit?
Yes
1.10
x
90
%
No
9.41
x
10
%
$196,799 vol
1 market
Will GPT plateau?
Yes
93.52
x
1
%
No
1.01
x
99
%
$70,549 vol
1 market
How much better will OpenAI's models be than Google's?
Above 0 points
46.79
x
2
%
Above 20 points
46.79
x
2
%
$273,415 vol
6 markets
New York Times settles OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes
23.43
x
4
%
No
1.04
x
96
%
$22,714 vol
1 market
Will California pass a law mandating AI models have a 'kill switch'?
Yes
15.64
x
6
%
No
1.06
x
94
%
$15,900 vol
1 market
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
Yes
23.43
x
4
%
No
1.04
x
96
%
$372,144 vol
1 market
How long will Grok 3 remain the best model?
Through Feb 2025
1.01
x
99
%
Through March 2025
93.52
x
1
%
$70,849 vol
2 markets
GPT-4 number of parameters before 2024?
Above 500 billion
9.41
x
10
%
Above 1 trillion
10.45
x
9
%
$23,128 vol
3 markets
ChatGPT-5 revealed in 2025?
Yes
1.01
x
99
%
No
93.52
x
1
%
$178,492 vol
1 market