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Economics

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Fed

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Fed
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Fed

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Above 4.00%
2.19x
Above 3.75%
1.57x
$15,966 vol21 markets
US FED

Fed decision in September?

Fed maintains rate
1.44x
Hike 25bps
2.98x
$12,708,413 vol5 markets
Fed

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts
1.15x
Exactly 1 cut
10.4x
$7,657,557 vol21 markets
US FED

Fed funds rate after September meeting?

Above 3.75%
2.89x
Above 4.00%
93.5x
$513,371 vol11 markets
Fed

Next Fed rate hike?

Before 2027
1.67x
Before July 2027
1.34x
$4,861,548 vol3 markets
Fed

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Yes
7.85x
No
1.13x
$1,017,915 vol1 market
US FED

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

3
2.81x
4
5.56x
$31,963 vol6 markets
Fed

Number of emergency rate cuts this year?

0 cuts
1.08x
1 cuts
23.4x
$434,912 vol5 markets
US FED

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

Neel Kashkari
2.29x
Lorie Logan
2.19x
$24,812 vol12 markets
US FED

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
1.44x
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0
4.13x
$27,950 vol6 markets
Fed

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Yes
11.7x
No
1.06x
$173,589 vol1 market
Economics

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Dot Plot Omitted
3.29x
Trimmed Mean Emphasized
5.25x
$39,505 vol5 markets
Fed

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 0
2.09x
Exactly 1
2.40x
$57,938 vol13 markets
Fed

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Above 3.8%
1.60x
Above 3.9%
2.66x
$1,815 vol12 markets
Fed

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Yes
15.6x
No
1.05x
$579,732 vol1 market
Fed

Will rates hit zero this year?

Yes
46.8x
No
--
$55,587 vol1 market
Economics

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Before Jan 1, 2031
1.23x
Before Jan 1, 2030
7.85x
$7,429 vol5 markets
Fed

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

Above 4.10%
1.50x
Above 4.20%
2.34x
$14,599 vol16 markets
Fed

SOFR up or down for August 21, 2026?

Yes
1.36x
No
2.14x
$0 vol1 market
Economics

Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Michael Faulkender
2.24x
David Altig
3.66x
$23 vol5 markets
Economics

Will the Fed schedule fewer than eight policy meetings a year?

Yes
1.97x
No
1.76x
$5,970 vol1 market
Fed

Will the Fed publish a dot plot in September 2026?

Yes
1.09x
No
7.85x
$7,209 vol1 market
Fed

SOFR at end of Q3 2026

Above 3.75%
1.93x
Above 4.25%
10.4x
$2,139 vol4 markets
Fed

Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026

Above $6.8 trillion
1.93x
Above $6.9 trillion
2.59x
$3,989 vol12 markets