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Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
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Daily temperature
Snow and rain
Climate change
High temp
Natural disasters
Hurricanes

Climate change

This January is the hottest January ever?
Yes46.79x
No1.02x
$175,466 vol1 market
US meets its climate goals?
By 20307.25x
By 202515.64x
$41,714 vol2 markets
January temperature increase?
1.03 to 1.091.31x
1.10 to 1.161.36x
$12,515 vol6 markets
Arctic sea ice maximum extent this winter?
Above 14.3 million sq km1.93x
Above 14.4 million sq km2.73x
$13,729 vol9 markets
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Yes3.80x
No1.31x
$12,886 vol1 market
India meets its 2030 climate goals?
Yes1.36x
No3.40x
$5,406 vol1 market
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Yes1.22x
No4.98x
$5,620 vol1 market
Tsunami before 2026?
Yes1.16x
No6.29x
$14,128 vol1 market
Will Trump withdraw from the Paris Agreement in his first 100 days?
Yes1.04x
No23.43x
$43,631 vol1 market
Min NYC temp in March 2022?
Yes93.52x
No1.01x
$11,540 vol1 market
Global heat in 2023?
1.11° or above1.01x
0.86° or below93.52x
$128,610 vol10 markets
EU meets its 2030 climate goals?
Yes2.14x
No1.76x
$1,907 vol1 market
Texas share of electricity from renewables in January 2022?
Yes3.66x
No1.33x
$1,093 vol1 market
Lake Mead water level projections, Start of 2024?
1075 or below1.05x
1070 or below1.09x
$40,460 vol11 markets
US CO2 totals in April?
Yes11.74x
No1.08x
$257 vol1 market
US average temp, August 2023?
74° to 75.99°--
69.0° or lower--
$0 vol7 markets
Arctic sea ice from Nov 19 to Dec 31, 2022?
Yes93.52x
No1.01x
$8,814 vol1 market
Arctic sea ice minimum extent summer 2025?
Below 5.2 million sq km1.01x
Below 5.0 million sq km1.02x
$78,183 vol13 markets